Probability and Medicine
By Arnold Kling
The truth is that random events can make or break us. It is more comforting to believe in the power of hard work and merit than to think that probability reigns not only in the casino but in daily life.
I think that a lot of perceptions about health care policy are based on a binary model in which if you receive treatment you are cured, and otherwise you are not. The probabilistic model is more subtle but more accurate.
For Discussion. For a typical patient, should the doctor quote probabilities, or simply tell the patient what to do?