Bryan is a Pessimist
By Arnold Kling
How about my house?! Is that going to be “obsolete” in 18 years? Even if housing prices go down a bit and my kids are extremely successful, my house will be worth years of their expected wages.
Your house will definitely be obsolete in 18 years. Your land may retain its value or even appreciate in real terms. But I think there is some downside risk, at least if Kurzweil is correct. Location will matter a lot less, for a number of reasons.
But I think you are understating your children’s future earnings. Again, assuming Kurzweil is correct, they will be rich beyond your wildest dreams. Your house will mean nothing to them. Instead of your children being nice to you in order to get your wealth, you’re going to have to be nice to them so that they’re willing to share theirs.
Kurzweil’s view of the reduced time frame for technological innovation and economic growth suggests that your children will look at your lifestyle about the way you look at the lifestyle before World War I.