Obamacare Passes By 6/30/10: Should I Bet Against It?
By Bryan Caplan
The Intrade price of Obamacare passing by June 30, 2010 is 36.0. I’m sorely tempted to bet against it’s passage, even after reading the fine print:
This contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if a
healthcare reform bill is passed into law before midnight ET on the
date specified in the contract.
will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if if a healthcare reform bill is not
passed into law before midnight ET on the date specified in the
Expiry will be based on the official passage
of a healthcare reform bill into law, as reported by three independent
and reliable media sources.
For purposes of this contract a healthcare reform bill is considered one of the following:
– The Affordable Health Care for America Act (H.R. 3962)
– The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (H.R. 3590)
– A bill reconciling the differences between the two bills named above
any of these bills are passed into law the contract will expire at 100.
If none of these three are passed into law the contract will expire at