Here’s a passage from the discussion section I’m writing for “Systematically Biased Beliefs About Political Influence“:

On the economy, the public overestimates the role of the President, Congress, and especially state and local governments, while underestimating the role of the Federal Reserve.  One surprising but plausible implication is that incumbents in state and local government will frequently be scapegoats for the mistakes of the Federal Reserve.

For now, this is just speculation.  Anyone know of any evidence pro or con?  Is it even generally true that reelection rates for governors and mayors fall during national recessions?