By Arnold Kling
My latest essay weaves together Daniel Kahneman and Jeffrey Friedman.
Suppose you were to ask yourself how well you understand the world around you. How accurate is your map of reality?
If you interrogate System Two, it might reply, “There are many phenomena about which I know little. In the grand scheme of things, I am just blindly groping through a world that is far too complex for me to possibly understand.”
However, if you were to interrogate System One, it might reply, “My map is terrific. Why, I am very nearly omniscient!”
Kahneman talks about the “planning fallacy,” in which projects always seem to cost more and take more time than expected. I would say that this affects public policy. Look at how often policies are less effective and have more adverse consequences than expected.