Arnold counter-offers to my proposed education bet.  Arnold’s in blockquotes.

I’d prefer to stretch out the time frame at least a few years. Maybe
let’s pick 5 indicators, and winning means at least 3 out of 5.

Fair enough, though it does complicate matters.


In real terms, total compensation of tenured faculty at GMU will be lower in 2025 than in 2012.

Why GMU?  How about total compensation of all tenured U.S. faculty?  We’d probably have to calculate it as tenured employment * average tenured wages, but I think there is canonical data for both.

Between now and 2025, at least 2 of the current top 200 private
colleges and universities will either fold, merge with a healthier
institution for financial reasons, or be taken over by the state.

2 out of 200 by 2025?  Is that your idea of an “education bubble”?  If so, maybe we don’t really disagree much.  I’d think that a bubble would required at least 20 out of 200 going down the tubes.

By 2025, at least 5 percent of high school seniors in Charles
Murray’s Superzips (elite zip codes) will be planning to obtain an
alternative certificate of higher education rather than a traditional
college degree.

This data is probably doubly hard to get – we’d need numbers on post-graduation plans by zip code.  Why not just move the resolution data on my bet with David Henderson to 2025?

Overall, Arnold’s proposed bets make me think that his position is more moderate than meets the eye.  But I’m still open to refinements.