As I’ve often written, one of the most powerful ideas in economics is the idea of “thinking on the margin.” That applies to this year’s Super Bowl, Super Bowl LVI.
Like hundreds of millions of people, I watched the Super Bowl yesterday. In case you haven’t heard, the Los Angeles Rams beat the Cincinnati Bengals by a score of 23-20 with a touchdown and a point after in the last 2 minutes of the game.
When I see a score that close, I immediately think of margins.
For a few minutes this morning, I watched Get Up on ESPN and although some of the commentary seemed well thought out, other comments showed little awareness of how a few little things could have changed the outcome.
So, for example, commenter Dan Orlovsky thinks that Matthew Stafford, the winning quarterback, should be inducted into the NFL Hall of Fame. He might be right but his support leaned heavily on the idea that Stafford deserved it because he led the Rams to victory in the last 2 minutes.
But at least one other commenter pointed out that it was defensive tackle Aaron Donald who cinched the victory with a sack of Cincinnati QB Joe Burrow in the last minute of the game.
If I watched the game again, which I don’t plan to do, something for which my wife will thank me, I could probably find other important margins. One was a relatively tacky-tack penalty for pass interference against a Bengals defender on the Rams’ last touchdown drive, a call that, of course, automatically led to a first down and let the Rams continue their drive.
Here’s how Berry Tramel of The Oklahoman describes it:
Third-and-goal, Rams ball at the Bengal 8-yard line, 1:47 remaining in the game, Cincinnati up 20-16. Stafford threw across the middle to Cooper Kupp, but linebacker Logan Wilson dove and knocked down the pass.
Then here came a penalty flag, for defensive holding. Replays showed very little. The Rams were facing fourth-and-goal from the 8-yard line, with the season on the line. Instead, LA scored four plays (counting three penalties) later.
“Replays showed very little.” That was my take too. If the penalty had not been called, Stafford would have had only one more try to hit the end zone (unless, of course, on that 4th down they called another defensive penalty.)
To his credit, Tramel points out an egregious non-call, one that my wife, who hates football, quickly noticed, but one that went unnoticed by the refs. Tramel writes:
However, that didn’t cost Cincinnati the game. The Bengals were blessed by an officiating error. Burrow threw a 75-yard touchdown pass to Tee Higgins on the first play of the third quarter. Higgins grabbed cornerback Jalen Ramsey’s facemask, and quickly flung Ramsey out of the way, en route to the catch. No flag.
So Cincinnati was on both ends of the NFL’s propensity to protect receivers at all costs – ticky-tack fouls on defenders in coverage, while ignoring egregious acts by receivers.
Nope, can’t blame the officials for this one.
Think on the margin.
READER COMMENTS
Stephen
Feb 14 2022 at 8:07pm
One football cliché is, after a missed extra point at the beginning of the game, one of the announcers will say ominously, “That could come back to haunt them.” In this case it did, when the Rams placeholder fumbled the snap on the conversion of an early 2nd quarter touchdown. The final drive dynamics in the 4th quarter were entirely affected by the fact that the Bengals held a 20-16, not a 20-17 lead. If the latter, maybe they’d still be playing (another cliché).
Garrett
Feb 14 2022 at 8:23pm
Umm, I can totally blame the officials for both. The defensive hold call in particular really ruined the ending.
Michael Rulle
Feb 15 2022 at 9:37am
Excellent. With a game this close between two essentially equal teams it really is randomness that determines outcomes. There are no explanations. Yes, we can critique certain plays at certain times——but they could have had different outcomes. This does NOT mean players did not play with great skill and effort. It means the outcome is very often just a random process.
Roger McKinney
Feb 17 2022 at 10:11am
That’s how I have always viewed it, too. The team that gets the most random breaks will win. Each team potentially can score on every play. Only when the score is lopsided do I consider one team better than another.
Alan Goldhammer
Feb 15 2022 at 10:15am
Rather than a game of margins think about the probability of how many players among the starting 22 will come down with CTE when they are older. This is why I gave up watching football 13 years ago and have not regretted it one bit. I don’t even look at the scores any longer.
Charley Hooper
Feb 16 2022 at 5:48pm
I read an interesting article by a neurosurgeon who was aghast that his son wanted to play football. Think of the head injuries! After the neurosurgeon did a fair amount of research, he determined that the link between football and CTE was very weak and he gave his son permission to play.
After I read the article, I agreed with the neurosurgeon.
John Fembup
Feb 15 2022 at 11:08pm
Football players are not held to a standard of perfection. Officials are.
Offensive and defensive players don’t get do-overs.
But officials’ calls are subject to video review, and reversal if found to be mistaken.
Then there’s a do-over.
Comments are closed.