Euro Bet II: Win Mark Steyn's Money

Even if you’re of the opinion that the EU is bound to collapse (and I’m not particularly convinced it will) you probably think it will collapse by having member countries ignore EU laws they don’t like rather than formally pulling out of the union. Under such a scenario, the EU would still exist, technically, it just wouldn’t mean much.

I’ll take you up on your offer. Also, I believe Mark Steyn has agreed as well.

Cheers,

Rob

Don’t things normally filter “down”, and not “up”? Are you suggesting, subliminally or otherwise, that Mark Steyn possesses superpowers?

I’m betting Mark Steyn has never read this.

isn’t there a threshold where someone is just too stupid to engage???

I think your money is safe Bryan. I think the chances of any one of the larger countries you mention leaving the EU over the next 12 years is certainly less than 5%, and probably less than 1%. I really can see no plausible reason at all that would cause any one of those countries to leave; although Scoop has it right that some countries will just choose to ignore some rules – which is what happens at the moment anyway.

I found this quote quite amusing: “I’ve been gloomily predicting that within the next couple of election cycles the internal contradictions of the EU will manifest themselves in the usual way.”

Only an American could say something so dumb about Europe. Europe has been a mass of contradictions for 1000+ years; it is not the United States – contradictions don’t matter as much in Europe. The UK has been a mass of contradictions since England and Scotland merged in 1707, and it survives, and I think is more likely than not to still be around in 100 years time. (BTW I’m Scottish and live in England, and there is really very little desire in Scotland for independence from the UK; support has been stuck at about 25% for decades.)

I really do wonder how much people making predictions about the demise of the EU actually know about Europe – and I don’t mean just statistics about what % of the population follow which religion, but what ordinary people in Europe think and believe about government and the EU. I live in the most euro-skeptic country in Europe, and the people with whom I am politically sympathetic are among the most euro-skeptic yet I just do not see even the beginnings of the real visceral hatred for the EU that would be required for the UK to leave. Yes there is a lot of mumbling and complaining, but that is all. For the UK to leave the EU there would have to be a political earthquake of a magnitude that has not happened in this country for centuries. I just don’t see it happening. As far as other countries are concerned, I can’t see the big EU powers allowing the situation to get so bad that a country like Czech Rep or Romania would want to leave; they can be bought-off relatively cheaply, or given opt-outs that wouldn’t really affect things EU-wide too much. Yes it is a solution that is full of contradictions but that is the European way. The core countries (ie the original 6 of Germany, France, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxemburg) will never leave. Ever. (Well over the next century say.)

From the perspective of someone living in Europe, talk of a large country leaving, or of the whole EU collapsing is frankly just crazy talk.

Wow. At http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=ZGQ1MzcyMDEwOGExZWEwMTk1NDUyNTQ4ZTYxZjc4NzQ=, he openly took the bet and raised you an order of magnitude.

Troy Camplin, Ph.D. writes:
Yes, Europe’s stability over the past few hundred years has been amazing. A veritable land of peace, love and harmony in the 20th century especially.

Troy, it’s been stable in it’s instability. That’s stability of sorts, isn’t it. Definition is king/queen.

Julio

I’d like to get in on this one, but on Bryan’s side. From the point of view of a non-UK EU citizen currently living in England, the idea seems quite unbelievable. That does not seem to be the sentiment of the general public – in none of the countries I’ve visited or whose citizens I’ve talked to – in the old countries (i.e., the original 6).
In the “relatively new” ones (Portugal, Spain, Greece / Sweden, Austria, etc..), there seems to be a fairly pro-European stance on the whole – though I don’t really have any numbers based on polls or anything of the sort (just a feel for what common people say about the topic and the fact that anti-Europe rhethoric does not seem to be getting a lot of votes).
In the new countries (Czech Republic, Romania, etc..), people are generally enthusiastic about Europe, or at least that is the feel you get, so I wouldn’t bet on them leaving any time soon.
The one country which does have a somewhat more detached relationship with Europe seems to be the UK, but even here you don’t get that much anti-EU rhethoric except from the odd party.
On the whole, as someone else has mentioned before, unless “a political earthquake” happens, Europe will stay pretty much on track.

Are those 2008 dollars or 2020 dollars?

My impression in Spain was of a very pro-EU populace. There were practically as many EU flags flying as Spanish.

Robert – “oh my, I’ve never felt so foolish.”

Don’t feel foolish. You were merely applying the cultural and historical assumptions of someone living in Europe and arriving at a completely stupid conclusion (ie. “Only an American could say something so dumb”).