Do you like prediction markets as much as Bryan and Robin? Then try Pop!Tech prediction market.
Do you like prediction markets as much as Bryan and Robin? Then try Pop!Tech prediction market.
Oct 10 2008
Here's a great question from Chuck in the comments:Do you have a reply to those who might say that the rationality of voters is largely irrelevant since election outcomes can be predicted by macro factors like income and GDP growth?Yes, I've got a bunch.1. If democratic competition leads politicians to adopt a highly s...
Oct 10 2008
It is natural to look at the collapse of stock prices and say, "See? Social Security privatization would be a disaster." But consider two possibilities: 1. The market is down because future U.S. wealth is down. In that case, government-provided Social Security in future decades is in trouble. 2. The future outlo...
Oct 10 2008
Do you like prediction markets as much as Bryan and Robin? Then try Pop!Tech prediction market.
READER COMMENTS
Tushar
Oct 10 2008 at 6:41pm
Arnold
Don’t these use “virtual” currency?
I highly doubt we can get as much accuracy
out of fake money…the incentives just aren’t there.
JSBolton
Oct 10 2008 at 11:12pm
If markets look ahead, then they would seem to be saying that the Obama panic is on.
Nigel Eccles
Oct 12 2008 at 5:23pm
@Tushar
There has been a lot of research into the accuracy of virtual money prediction markets. The bottom line is that they can be just as accurate as real money ones. Google for “Does money matter: prediction markets” to find some good research.
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