Jim Rogers, investment biker and co-founder with Soros of the Quantum Fund, says we should let AIG fail:
“Suppose AIG goes bankrupt, it is better that AIG goes bankrupt and we
have a horrible two or three years than that the whole US goes
bankrupt,” Rogers said. “AIG has trillions of dollars of obligations,
let them fail, let the courts sort it out and start over. Otherwise
we’ll never start over.”[…]
“You are watching something in front of our
eyes, very historically, which is basically the destruction of New York
as a financial center and the destruction of America as the world’s
most powerful country.”
A lot of this seems over the top even to me. But he’s no hypocrite. Unlike Alec Baldwin, Rogers actually has fled the country. He now resides in… [drum roll please] … Singapore!
In December 2007, Rogers sold his mansion in New York City for about 16 million USD and moved to Singapore.
This is due mainly in his belief that this is a ground-breaking time
for investment potential in Asian markets. Rogers’ first daughter is
now being tutored in Mandarin to prepare her for the future, he says.
“Moving to Asia now is like moving to New York City in 1907,” he said.
Also, he is quoted to say: “If you were smart in 1807 you moved to
London, if you were smart in 1907 you moved to New York City, and if
you are smart in 2007 you move to Asia.”
Hmm.
READER COMMENTS
Steve Sailer
Mar 3 2009 at 3:00pm
A real patriot …
InflationHedge
Mar 3 2009 at 3:10pm
A good interview with Jim Rogers:
http://farmlandforecast.colvin-co.com/2009/02/27/jim-rogers-agriculture-is-going-to-be-the-best-place-to-be.aspx
Joseph
Mar 3 2009 at 3:44pm
Jim Rogers has his good moments, but his predictions about commodities have been way off the mark.
Zdeno
Mar 3 2009 at 3:51pm
p(collapse of western civilization as we know it within the next 20 years) = .3
I don’t fault Jim for his choice. Nor do I fault the many productive and law-abiding Europeans who are fleeing the crime, taxation and lawlessness that exist in their places of birth.
Singapore (and I imagine China will be following close behind) is embracing all of the best aspects of Western Civ and very few of the worst. Perhaps they’ve earned a try at the whole empire thing. We certainly haven’t.
Cheers
Zdeno
Blackadder
Mar 3 2009 at 4:03pm
My Dad was talking to me today about moving to Chile on roughly the same grounds.
Bob Montgomery
Mar 3 2009 at 4:34pm
I dunno. Just seems like high-stakes market-timing to me; maybe he can pull it off, but it doesn’t seem generalizable. What if he’s off by 20 years?
But in any case, from what I can tell, the rest of the world seems, generally, in worse shape than the US – and if things go belly-up worldwide, I’d much rather be a native-born citizen in the country that has a 200+ year history of economic, political, and religious freedom than the odd-duck, foreign-born white guy in the continent where that same long history of freedom just isn’t there.
Jayson Virissimo
Mar 3 2009 at 4:42pm
Joseph,
How many millions have you made in commodities markets? I would say Jim Rogers is doing just fine.
Stewart Griffin
Mar 3 2009 at 4:43pm
“What if he’s off by 20 years?”
He’s very rich, so whatever happens he will be fine.
Methinks
Mar 3 2009 at 4:47pm
A real patriot …
And what exactly were your ancestors when they fled the country of their birth to come to the United States, Steve Sailor?
Smart people go where they have the most opportunity. It seems that the United States is sliding down the list of destination countries.
dearieme
Mar 3 2009 at 5:37pm
“Smart people go where they have the most opportunity.” Maybe. But in much of Europe smart people who thought they could succeed in the fierce competition of societies where the niches were already occupied, stayed: those who were less sure went to America.
Tom
Mar 3 2009 at 5:51pm
If the government’s share of GDP rises from around 20% to around 30% or 35%, won’t he be fundamentally right? Won’t this be the beginning of the end for the US as the world’s most powerful country if the unprecedented expansion of government is not reversed in 4 years?
Bob Montgomery
Mar 3 2009 at 6:12pm
By that logic he should just stay in the US. The point is that he’s trying to find an advantage by, essentially, predicting the economic future of the world.
I’m skeptical.
STO
Mar 3 2009 at 6:46pm
I’ve thought for a very long time that my children’s generation (late teens/early twenties) would be the first to leave our shores for greater opportunity. I’m afraid I’ll be proven right. The US may remain a very good place to live for generations to come but there will be greater opportunity elsewhere.
Guy Tower
Mar 3 2009 at 7:03pm
You say “patriot” like that’s a good thing. Patriot typically means someone who is willing to hurt others based on where they were born. You can like where you live without all the semi-mystical motherland/fatherland crap that patriotism has at its’ heart.
Jim Rodgers is doing what most intelligent people who want to live peaceful and prosperous lives would do. Moving himself and his ffamily to where the opportunities are best for them.. just like the people who moved here were doing. He is truer to what we consider the the spirit of those who founded this country than most of the people who actually live here today.
8
Mar 3 2009 at 7:09pm
These trends take decades to play out. The U.S. will always be a wealthy country with freedom, but if you are smart and capable, you will move to places that offer the greatest rewards.
China, short of a break down, will attract people if only because it will grow faster than the West. However, throw in the implied tax rates from Social Security and Medicare, plus the attacks on tax shelters, and its clear that young people would be wise to physically relocate overseas.
Methinks
Mar 3 2009 at 7:21pm
But in much of Europe smart people who thought they could succeed in the fierce competition of societies where the niches were already occupied, stayed
Of course they did. In socialist societies what’s important is not what you know but who you know. If you’re close to power or otherwise have an “in”, why would you risk your sure thing for the unknown of the United States? That wouldn’t be smart.
Matt C
Mar 4 2009 at 12:56am
> A lot of this seems over the top even to me.
Huh. Rhetorically it is extreme, but I think the decline that we’re in is for the long term. We’ll have a recovery, yes, but we’ll never be quite the same again. I just hope the slide down doesn’t get too ugly.
shayne
Mar 4 2009 at 12:10pm
Vastly more problematic for the U.S. economy than Jim Rogers leaving is the fact that his capital had already left.
Jeremy, Alabama
Mar 4 2009 at 1:24pm
So what? If your finances are such that you have a $16M mansion to sell, you could live in the north pole and be happy.
wab
Mar 7 2009 at 11:32am
Mr. Rogers can say whatever… and move to wherever… The salient fact is what passport he travels on and what citizenship he holds….???? As Americans are subject to tax on ALL world income…. minus a deductable for over-seas residents… at the end-of-the-day one is responsible back to one’s country of citizenship; as there are no “International Passports”.
expat
Mar 10 2009 at 2:40pm
wab, can you think of a better reason to give up your citizenship? If he has become a citizen of Singapore, which I believe is the case, none of this is relevant.
Cheers. (Likely the happiest thing you’ll see in a very long time).
Stu
Mar 10 2009 at 7:37pm
whats the big deal wait till it goes pair shaped and then moove to timbucktoo
Victoria
Mar 12 2009 at 2:35pm
“expat writes:
wab, can you think of a better reason to give up your citizenship? If he has become a citizen of Singapore, which I believe is the case, none of this is relevant.
Posted March 10, 2009 2:40 PM”
I think this is the most interesting thing to see… Jim always proclaims he’s 100% American, and he’s only a Singapore resident, but I wonder if he’ll eventually give up his US citizenship. The thing is, Singapore is one of the few countries that REQUIRE that new citizens renounce their old citizenships (most countries don’t care).
In the US, if tax evasion is identified as the reason why you are renouncing your citizenship, you’ll still have to pay to Uncle Sam. So if Jim wants to get rid of future tax liabilities to the States, he can say that he HAS to give up his US citizenship because of Singapore laws and his desire to become Singaporean.
Obviously, it’s nothing but my speculation, but I find it interesting that he has that option and I wonder what he’ll do, especially given looming estate tax concerns…
Victoria
Mar 12 2009 at 2:59pm
By the way, I definitely wouldn’t judge him at all for that! He should do what’s best for his family and what reflects his vision of the world.
I had an option of moving permanently to the States, but due to taxation, chose to live in another OECD but stick to US visas instead of going the green card route (which automatically means I would have to pay the IRS even if I decide to move abroad!)
Some day, I definitely plan to move to Asia (preferably mainland China) myself. I just want to improve my Mandarin first.
Comments are closed.