Bad Predictions, Durant Edition
By Bryan Caplan
As Niels Bohr remarked, “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.” Here’s a 1968 howler from the Durants’ The Lessons of History:
In the United States the lower birth rate of the Anglo-Saxons has lessened their economic and political power; and the higher birth rate of Roman Catholic families suggest that by the year 2000 the Roman Catholic Church will be the dominant force in national as well as in municipal or state governments. A similar process is helping restore Catholicism in France, Switzerland, and Germany; the lands of Voltaire, Calvin, and Luther may soon return to the papal fold.
Gene Expression’s Razib would not be surprised…