A Certain Misperception

Bryan Caplan

By Bryan Caplan, May 6 2010

On Facebook, I just posed the following question:

Bryan Caplan is less certain about most things than others believe him to be. What’s the source of the misperception?

My starting hypothesis: People confuse bluntness with certainty.

If you question the premise, remember: A betting man like me can’t afford to be certain about much!

Bruce Charlton no longer edits one. While he was editor, he published Robin Hanson's classic article on what we now call Hansonian medicine. Daniel Klein still edits one, and the latest issue features an article challenging Bryan Caplan's view that education improves economic enlightenment. Hanson, Klein, and Capla...

May 7 2010

Macroeconomics

The Minsky-Jones Forecast Looks Good

Arnold Kling

Two months ago, I wrote, The standard forecast is, "employment has been less than what we expected, so let's assume it will continue to be less than expected." My forecast is that the recalculation is just getting started, and we will probably see employment growth of 200,000 jobs a month, or perhaps more, for the n...

May 6 2010

Economic Methods

A Certain Misperception

Bryan Caplan

On Facebook, I just posed the following question:Bryan Caplan is less certain about most things than others believe him to be. What's the source of the misperception?My starting hypothesis: People confuse bluntness with certainty.If you question the premise, remember: A betting man like me can't afford to be cert...

A Certain Misperception

Bryan Caplan

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