The Bettor's Oath
By Bryan Caplan
Another great thing about my new daughter: she got me to start watching Game of Thrones. The first episode didn’t hook me last year, but now I can’t stop thinking about the show. I’ve even been inspired by the Night’s Watch Oath to write an oath of my own. Here goes:
The Bettor’s Oath
Blathering talk surrounds us, but I will take no part in it. My word is my bet; I will always put my money where my mouth is. When challenged, I will bet on my words, refine them, or recant. When no one is present to challenge me, I will weigh my words and thoughts as if my fellow oath-takers were listening.
I will make both conditional and unconditional bets, and assign probabilities whenever asked. I will claim no false certainty; unless I will stake my life on my belief, I am not truly certain – and will admit it.
When I lose a bet, I will admit defeat, pay promptly, and hold my tongue – never protesting that I was “really right.” If I have caveats or reservations, I will declare them when I make the bet – not after I lose it.
When I win a bet, I will not shame my opponent, for a betting loser has far more honor than the mass of men who live by loose and idle talk. I pledge my mind and words to the bettor’s oath, for this day and all the days to come…
Unless something in this oath turns out to be wrong, an eventuality to which I assign a 3% probability.