Ukrainian Prediction Challenge
By Bryan Caplan
The long-run benefits of war are highly uncertain. Some wars –
most obviously the Napoleonic Wars and World War II – at least arguably
deserve credit for decades of subsequent peace. But many other wars –
like the French Revolution and World War I – just sowed the seeds for
new and greater horrors. You could say, “Fine, let’s only fight wars
with big long-run benefits.” In practice, however, it’s very difficult
to predict a war’s long-run consequences. One of the great lessons of Tetlock’s Expert Political Judgment is that foreign policy experts are much more certain of their predictions than they have any right to be.
Challenge: In the comments, go on the record and predict what will actually come of the emerging Ukrainian-Russian conflict. Only unconditional, falsifiable predictions count. No claims like: “Unless the EU acts…” “If Russia comes to its senses…” or “This will be a very different world.” Make specific claims about what will actually happen by a specific date.
In a year I’ll revisit your comments and rank their accuracy with the benefit of hindsight.