What Happened in Ukraine
By Bryan Caplan
A year ago I challenged EconLog readers to make unconditional predictions about the Ukraine conflict:
Challenge: In the comments, go on the record and predict what will
actually come of the emerging Ukrainian-Russian conflict. Only
unconditional, falsifiable predictions count. No claims like: “Unless
the EU acts…” “If Russia comes to its senses…” or “This will be a
very different world.” Make specific claims about what will actually
happen by a specific date.
In a year I’ll revisit your comments and rank their accuracy with the benefit of hindsight.
Before I carry out the promised ranking, this is what’s actually seems to have happened:
- About 6,000 have been killed.
- Russia has formally annexed Crimea, but not officially declared war on Ukraine.
- Russia has covertly sent thousands of Russian soldiers into Ukraine, but less than ten thousand.
- Real GDP growth was slightly over 0% in Russia and under -5% in Ukraine.
- So few NATO troops have been killed that no statistics for NATO fatalities in Ukraine google.
- Despite several peace deals, fighting continues.
Anyone seriously dispute any of these facts? Any major facts I’m omitting?