Nuclear Iran Bet
By Bryan Caplan
The United States and its allies have struck a deal with Iran that
effectively ensures that it will be a nuclear state with ballistic
missiles in 10 years, assuming Iran adheres to the deal’s terms, which
is a very large assumption.
Such supreme confidence cries out for a bet. Draft terms: John gives me 10:1 odds that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by July 31, 2025 according to (a) any major U.S. newspaper (NYT, WSJ, up to three others of John’s choice) or (b) any major international agency (Atomic Energy Commission, U.N., up to three others of John’s choice). If this happens, I immediately owe him $100. Otherwise, he owes me $1000 on August 1, 2025.
I’m happy to make the same bet with any prominent individual on their honor, or with anyone willing to prepay me. (When the bet starts, PayPal me whatever you owe me if you lose. If you
win, I refund your money + whatever I owe you + some interest if you