Right before Halloween, I bet Tim Kane $20 at even odds that Bush would drop out of the election before Trump. And so he has. All praise to Tim for his continuing willingness to bet his beliefs!
Feb 22 2016
Last weekend I gave a talk up at the Liberty Forum in Manchester, New Hampshire. While there, I learned more about the Free State Movement, an idea about which I was only dimly aware. The following is from memory, so there might be a few errors. The movement began about 15 years ago when Yale grad student Jason Sore...
Feb 22 2016
I'm looking for good empirical work measuring the prevalence and effects of "teaching to the test." Nothing good pops up on Google Scholar. Help!
Feb 22 2016
Right before Halloween, I bet Tim Kane $20 at even odds that Bush would drop out of the election before Trump. And so he has. All praise to Tim for his continuing willingness to bet his beliefs!
READER COMMENTS
Jon Murphy
Feb 22 2016 at 1:07pm
Congrats on your win. I would have thought for sure Trump would be falling out of favor once the voting actually started. Boy was I wrong.
I also said Sanders wouldn’t finish above 3rd in the Democratic Primary.
I shouldn’t bet on elections after this year…
Yaakov
Feb 22 2016 at 6:50pm
I do not bet, but am well aware and make public that I am very bad at predictions. I meticulously followed the polls for the Israel elections over several rounds of elections and accordingly predicted that in 2006 the elections would be 5-7 mandates off from the predictions of the polls. I was wrong. For the first time I remember, the polls got the results accurately in 2006.
In 2015, I told my wife that the after voting polls announced immediately after the ballots are closed, are always accurate and accordingly said that the results will not be substantially different. I was wrong. For the first time I remember in Israel, the polls were off by a relatively large margin.
Predicting election results is very tricky. I do not have the skills required.
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