People respond to incentives. With some generous interpretation, this simple sentence summarizes the bulk of what you’ll learn in any good undergraduate economics course. The challenge, of course, is to realize that this is always true even when we might want it to not be.
For example, imagine for a minute that you’re in a position where you have to make decisions. For your decisions, there are three options: you can get the decision right or you can get it wrong. “But Dave,” you say, “that’s only two options!” In the following nuance lies the heart of this piece: there are two ways in which you can be wrong. You can act when you shouldn’t have or you can fail to act when you should have.
Getting things right all the time is not possible. So which type of mistake are you more likely to guard against? It depends on which one will get you fired.
In most government settings, the answer is biased in particular (and predictable) ways. This is what economists call asymmetric accountability and it occurs when the consequences of one type of error are visible, attributable, and (potentially) career-ending, while the consequences of the other are diffuse, invisible, and nobody’s fault in particular. These incentives lead government agencies to guard against acting wrongly more strongly than they do against failing to act when action could help. The resulting problems aren’t the result of incompetence, but of rational self-protection. We see this routinely with the FDA, the TSA, and the seemingly ever-growing national debt.
Take, for example, the FDA. They can approve a treatment that turns out to be unsafe or they can delay (or deny) one that would have saved lives. Approving an unsafe treatment leads to identifiable patients, newspaper headlines, and potentially congressional hearings. A failure to approve a treatment usually has none of these effects. The continued suffering (sometimes even deaths) of patients who don’t receive treatment that’s never gained access to the market are rarely linked to regulatory bottlenecks.
The incentives this creates are obvious. An FDA reviewer who sits on an application for two more years faces no accountability for the deaths the delay may have caused. A reviewer who approves something that later causes harm potentially faces career catastrophe. The result? An institution that tilts toward cautious delay, requiring more studies and more clinical trials before approval.
The same pattern explains why the TSA confiscates your water bottle. If a security screener waves through a passenger who later commits an attack, the consequences would be catastrophic and, importantly for the screener, traceable. If they instead inconvenience 10,000 passengers with “security delays,” missed flights, and ritual humiliation, the cost is still very real but nobody gets fired. Travelers grumble but ultimately move on.
The screener, the supervisor, and the agency all face serious accountability when they let a real threat through, but essentially none when they treat everyone and everything like a threat. The predictable result is one of security theater that is not designed to minimize total harm, but to minimize a particular kind of harm that could show up in a congressional investigation.
Asymmetric accountability also helps explain the problem of persistent government deficits. Balancing a budget isn’t difficult. Most people, including elected officials, manage to do it in their own lives with such regularity that we barely pay any attention. But doing so with actual government spending requires every policymaker to agree to restrain spending, including on their own district. This is where it falls apart. Restraint only works if everyone goes along with it.
Spending, by comparison, requires cooperation too, but this cooperation is much easier to secure than mutual restraint. Every politician knows that spending today gets immediate, attributable credit. They’re branded as someone who “gets results” and is rewarded with ribbon cuttings, press releases, and grateful constituents. The bill, however, arrives much later, often paid for by taxpayers who weren’t even old enough to vote when the spending was approved in the first place. And herein lies the cooperation: politicians can trade votes in a process known as “logrolling.” That way, everyone gets a ribbon cutting, press releases, and grateful constituents. Nobody campaigns on sparing our grandchildren an oversized tax bill.
These examples all look like failures of different kinds, but they’re all the result of the same problem: asymmetric accountability. In each case, from the perspective of the decision-maker, one is visible, attributable, and personally costly. The other is invisible, diffuse, and consequence-free. There might be good reasons to be frustrated by this reality, but the fix isn’t to find better people or to improve training. It’s to build better accountability structures.
After all: people respond to incentives.
READER COMMENTS
Thomas Hutcheson
May 19 2026 at 10:21am
“A failure to approve a treatment usually has none of these effects.”
Which is why God created economists. 🙂
steve
May 21 2026 at 1:45pm
God or the other guy?
Steve
Thomas Hutcheson
May 19 2026 at 10:26am
“But doing so with actual government spending requires every policymaker to agree to restrain spending, including on their own district”
But doing so with actual government revenue requires every policymaker to agree not to cut taxes, including on their own supporters.
steve
May 19 2026 at 12:26pm
As far as the FDA goes, I think the more obvious incentive is that the advisory groups for drug approval are largely unpaid. If you want them to work faster you might try paying them. Of course if you want the drugs to actually be used faster that’s a different issue. Other than a few true groundbreaking drugs, docs dont really use them very much until they have made the rounds in the journals and there have been additional studies to support their use.
Also, there are other effects besides the drug approval person facing problems. It then makes the general public leery when you try to use similar drugs. I think the gist of your article is correct but it’s oversimplified.
Steve
nobody.really
May 19 2026 at 1:59pm
This is a crucial insight: Government agents may have an inappropirate bias for inaction. But can we think of any other group that has a bias for government inaction? How about … libertarians?
So yes, emphastically, inappropriate bias is more likely to result in government inaction than in government action. And for that reason, people who grouse solely about suboptimal government action are missing the the forest for the trees. Portfolio theory might lead us to conclude that optimal government should do MORE things, and make MORE mistakes, and generate MORE benefits, than any actual government does.
(Am I starting to sound like a Trump booster? Or a Musk booster? “Move fast and break things!” Hmmm….)
steve
May 21 2026 at 1:49pm
I cant tell if you are trying to be funny, but the point is well made that economists, maybe especially libertarians, have their own biases. Public choice theory taught us that politicians respond to their own incentives. Someone needs to realize this is also true of economists.
Steve
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