On Monday, November 21 (my birthday, by the way), I gave a talk at the Osher Lifelong Learning Institute (OLLI) at California State University Monterey Bay. The topic: “How Economists Helped End the Draft.” It wasn’t recorded this time but I did give the talk at Middle Tennessee State University in Murfreesboro, TN about 10 years ago and that was recorded. Here’s the talk. By the way, that was the college that James Buchanan attended as an undergrad.
In prepping the talk, I re-looked at some of the studies done for the Gates Commission in 1969 and was pleased that, as I thought I had remembered, one of the studies was actually on the cost of draft avoidance. The cost was pretty high.
That got me thinking: This is something special about economists. They actually take account, not just of costs to governments and costs to law-abiding people (although many methods of draft avoidance were totally legal) but also of costs to those who illegally engage in avoidance.
In short, economics is fundamentally humane. Economists think of costs to pretty much everyone involved.
Thinking about that after my talk, I remembered a line from George J. Stigler that I spent over half an hour trying to find and haven’t found. I think it was in one of his expositions of opportunity cost. Stigler, if I recall correctly, was actually making gentle fun of himself and of the economics profession with the quip I’m about to quote, but my own reaction was that, far from being a reason to make fun of economics, the quote from Stigler was a reason to celebrate the humaneness of economists.
The quote went something like this:
When economists hear that Oscar Wilde went to prison for 2 years, they are so crass as to worry about the plays he could have written but didn’t write because he was in prison.
I know this quote is literally wrong but I think I’ve got the gist. My point is that it’s not crass at all: it’s humane. The picture above is of Wilde.
One of the standard stories I tell in my talk to illustrate the huge cost of the draft compared to that of an all-volunteer force is of Elvis Presley, who was drafted into the army from 1958 to 1960. Just a few weeks before giving the talk, I came across a quote from John Lennon, who had been an admirer of Presley. Lennon said, “Elvis died the day he went into the army.” Of course Lennon didn’t mean that literally, but what he seemed to mean is that Elvis’s music was no longer cutting edge. I don’t know enough Presley’s music but my casual impression is that that’s true. If so, that’s another cost of the draft.
Aside: A friend who managed to dodge the 1960s, early 1970s draft by not registering told me that I left out a major cost of the draft: the cost of enforcement. He pointed to the example of someone we both knew whom the FBI put serious resources into finding and finally did catch, 3 years after the draft had ended. The government had prepared its case against him and then, when President Carter granted amnesty in 1977, the case was ended. My friend estimated that the cost of pursuing this guy and preparing a prosecution could easily have been $100,000 in mid-1970s dollars.
READER COMMENTS
David Seltzer
Nov 23 2022 at 7:03pm
Cost from another perspective. I served fours in the Navy. Upon discharge from Treasure Island, I was classified as ready-reserve for the next two years as the war in Southeast Asia ramped up. That meant I could recalled at any time in that span and must report immediately. My parents offered to send me to Toronto, as we had relatives there. I refused and was never called up. I worked, went to college but worried that I would not be able to pursue my life’s purposes if I was so summoned. My opportunity cost would be great as I would have no choice but to report. I suspect the cost would have been greater if I chose to run. Even greater if I had been KIA after returning to duty.
Thomas Lee Hutcheson
Nov 23 2022 at 10:20pm
Of course we can only estimate these opportunity costs within a model that shows the states of the world with and without the draft, with and without Wilde going to prison or with and without a tax on net emissions of CO2 and methane.
David Henderson
Nov 24 2022 at 12:04am
Of course, but I think it’s a pretty good bet that Presley would have kept making music and Oscar Wilde would have kept writing plays.
Thomas Lee Hutcheson
Nov 24 2022 at 7:06am
And that the CO2 and methane in the atmosphere will continue to increase. The “good bet” is a model as are climate change models.
Mark Brophy
Nov 24 2022 at 12:39pm
Elvis became a drug addict in the Army. Lennon wasn’t exaggerating, the Army ruined Elvis and led to his early death.
Jim Glass
Nov 26 2022 at 12:17am
As a person who had a draft number during the Vietnam war, I totally agree as to the voluntary military. Totally. My law school roommate worked for Carter’s amnesty commission, and off of his experience I agree with that analysis too.
But it’s important to remember that best policy flows not just from principles but also from practical realities in the ground.
E.g.: Finland ranks at the very top of Freedom House’s Country Freedom Index, Scoring 100/100.
And with it’s small population of 5.5 million, it may also be the most completely militarized nation in the world. It has universal military conscription, a military reserve of 900,000 (fourth largest in the world), Europe’s largest artillery force (!), and 54,000 nuclear bunkers that can house 4.5 million people — by law, every new building of any decent size has to have a bunker, and commercial buildings typically have business spaces convertible into them.
How does all this mandatory militarization square with “freedom”?
Finland has a long border and long history of conflict with a far bigger, very nasty neighbor, you-know-who, right next door. In the classical prescription of “Life, Liberty, and Private Property” (or “Pursuit of Happiness” as per Franklin’s rhetorical edit), note that “Life”, security, comes first, the rest follow. The classicals were clear on this. For how much liberty, private property and happiness a country will retain after you-know-who’s invading army takes over just ask Ukraine, or Finland circa 1940 (or lots of other countries).
So a volunteer military for the USA from my draft call-up date into our future … absolutely! Celebrate it. For others that can manage it, yes. At all times, for everyone? No — perspective, facts matter.
The USA scores 83/100 on the Freedom Index.
Jon Murphy
Nov 26 2022 at 6:32pm
I’m not sure why you’re using the Freedom House measure here. It seems generally irrelevant to the matter at hand and to your point. Freedom House measures various political and civil freedoms, not all freedoms.
Further, you claim ” At all times, for everyone? No — perspective, facts matter.” Perhaps, but it’s not obvious from your argument why you think so. Why would Finland be weaker without a draft? Why wouldn’t a volunteer force be able to accomplish the same goal?
Comments are closed.