External effects such as air pollution are often cited as an example of a problem that can be usefully addressed by public policy. In the real world, however, two factors cause externalities to be overemphasized as a justification for regulation:
- Transactions costs
- Motivated reasoning
A recent article by Geoffrey Kabat in Reason magazine helps to illustrate both of these problems. Back in 2003, Kabat and James Enstrom published a study showing that second hand smoke had no statistically significant effect on mortality. According to Kabat, the reaction to their paper is a classic example of motivated reasoning:
Since that conclusion flew in the face of the conventional wisdom that had long driven state and local bans on smoking in public places, our study understandably sparked a controversy in the public health community. But the intensity of the attack on us in the pages of a medical journal—by critics who were certain that our study had to be wrong but typically failed to provide specific evidence of fatal errors—vividly illustrates what can happen when policy preferences that have taken on the status of doctrine override rational scientific debate. . . .
Exposure to ETS is known to cause eye and throat irritation and to exacerbate preexisting respiratory conditions. In addition, it is simply disagreeable to many people (including me). But assessing the claim that ETS is potentially deadly requires dispassionate examination of the available scientific evidence.
Another example of motivated reasoning occurs when people complain that smokers lead to higher taxes due to spending on public health care, ignoring the offsetting fact that they live considerably shorter lives and thus collect smaller public pensions. There are good reasons to be annoyed by smoking, but increased fiscal costs are not among them.
Kabat points out that a new scientific study reached broadly similar conclusions regarding second hand smoke:
A recent study by American Cancer Society (ACS) researchers underscores that point by showing that, contrary to what our critics asserted, the cancer risk posed by ETS is likely negligible. The authors present that striking result without remarking on it, which may reflect their reluctance to revisit a debate that anti-smoking activists and public health officials wrongly view as long settled.
The other problem with second hand smoke legislation is that ignores the issue of transactions costs. Ronald Coase showed that public policies to address externalities are only necessary when there are large transactions costs to negotiating a private resolution of the issue. To the extent that second hand smoke is a problem, it is almost entirely in indoor settings. That means the problem can be most easily addressed by the owner of the property where the smoking occurs.
Governments can regulate second hand smoke in government buildings, and private owners can regulate second hand smoke in privately-owned buildings. There is no obvious rationale for having the government regulate behavior in a privately-owned setting. Property owners already have an incentive to regulate second hand smoke whenever the benefit to such a regulation exceeds the cost.
This is not to to deny that there exist externalities that reflect market failures. I favor carbon taxes to address global warming. But even on that issue, which the private sector cannot easily address, I see many examples of motivated reasoning. Proponents of “degrowth” seem motivated by a distaste for our modern industrial society, and use global warming as an excuse to push for a return to a simpler past. Carbon taxes are not an appealing solution for people with that sort of agenda, as they would allow society to address global warming without giving up all of our modern conveniences. For some advocates of degrowth, the efficiency of carbon taxes would be a bug, not a feature.
READER COMMENTS
Richard A.
Nov 5 2024 at 8:37pm
With regard to carbon taxes, ever cheaper solar energy is now at the point where it can undercut fossil fuels, but unfortunately ever increasing trade restrictions in the US are causing the cost of solar energy to be higher than the world price. We have a 102.5% on would be cheap EVs from China, slowing the transition from ICE vehicles to EVs. We also have trade restrictions on batteries.
Green protectionism is slowing down the transition to a green economy. More people need to speak out against green protectionism and promote green free trade.
Scott Sumner
Nov 6 2024 at 3:05pm
Very good comment.
David Henderson
Nov 6 2024 at 6:34pm
You mean a 102.5% tariff, right?
Richard A.
Nov 7 2024 at 10:28pm
Yes. We have a 2.5% tariff on autos from outside North America. Biden increased the Trump tariff of 25% on China EVs to 100%, in addition to the 2.5% tariff for a total of 27.5% under Trump to 102.5% under Biden.
Futhermore, the Biden administration encouraged Canada to increase trade restrictions on China EVs. Canada responded with a 100% tariff in addition to its 6.1% tariff on imports from outside North America for a total tariff of 106.1%, making Canada’s tariff higher than ours.
Knut P. Heen
Nov 6 2024 at 5:22am
I am in total agreement. My motivated reasoning is that taxes is so irritating that I have to be compensated by getting my taxes back plus some to achieve the status quo.
Dylan
Nov 6 2024 at 5:31am
Smoking bans is an interesting example that caused me to change my priors a little bit. I’ve never been a smoker but was against smoking bans when they started appearing in different states. Basically for the same reason you state.
Yet, 20+ years on, I can’t deny how much better they have made my life. Being able to go out and not wake up feeling sick and smelling like an ashtray. I’m certain I go out much more now than I would have if we still lived in the same nightlife world as we had in the 90s. As a non-smoker that was always bothered by smoke, this is not surprising. But, what surprised me is how many of my smoker friends agree with me! They also much prefer to go out to bars where there’s no smoking, yet that world didn’t develop on its own.
A few years back I was in Berlin and was able to get a glimpse of what our world still might be. I loved the city, but everyplace I went was filled with smoke to a level that I had to leave. I searched and was only able to find two bars in the entire city that were noted for enforcing no smoking (the story I was told was that while smoking in most bars is illegal in Berlin as it is in other German cities, this law is associated with the Nazis and is therefore not enforced). Note that Germany has one of the highest proportions of smokers in Europe, but that was still less than a quarter of the population. Yet, 99% of bars were filled with smoke.
Scott Sumner
Nov 6 2024 at 3:14pm
The fact that you don’t like smoke is not an argument for the government getting involved in regulation. There’s lots of stuff out in the world that I don’t like. But that doesn’t make me wish to ban those things.
Dylan
Nov 6 2024 at 4:31pm
I agree, and apologies if that’s what it sounded like. My contention is, this law made things better for most people, including smokers! Admittedly, I’ve got a biased sample, but I’ve had many smoker friends who opposed smoking bans initially, who later came to appreciate them. To the point that we would choose to go to the bars in the jurisdiction that had smoking bans rather than the ones that didn’t, even though most of our group smoked at the time.
I still oppose such laws on principle, but I’m conflicted because I think these bans increased aggregate utility and provided something that free market competition should have provided, but didn’t. Especially since, the studies I’ve seen suggest the economic impacts on the hospitality sector were slightly positive as a broader group of people who had avoided smoky restaurants and bars went out more frequently. If there was money to be made by offering this as an option, why did so few offer it?
Kevin Corcoran
Nov 7 2024 at 12:09pm
This is an interesting perspective – all the more interesting (to me) because my experience of things was something like the opposite. That is, I recall when smoking bans were going into effect, many of my non-smoker friends expressed disappointment with the change. For them, the whole “smokey bar” atmosphere was a part of the experience of going out, and losing that particular bit of ambiance made the experience less enjoyable for them, even though they didn’t smoke. (I personally wasn’t really impacted by the change, though. Even when I was a three pack a day smoker, I was never really fond of the bar or club scene.)
Dylan
Nov 7 2024 at 1:37pm
That’s the problem with regulation, people have all sorts of weird and wrong preferences! 😉
I’m inclined to put those people in the same bucket as my friends that swear NYC was better in the 80s and 90s when it was “grittier.” Sure, there’s some elements that were better, but I tend to think nostalgia and romance are doing a lot of the work here (although I do note that you said this was the perspective of your friends at the time). Still, would be curious if you polled those same people today if they would feel the same way.
The aha moment for us was realizing we were no longer getting hangovers even if we had the same amount to drink. Something about the combo of a lot of smoke and a bit of alcohol left us feeling very raw the next day.
The other thing is how much the bans seemed to change social norms. Every smoker I know would be aghast at smoking inside their own home or car today. Something most did before the bans.
steve
Nov 6 2024 at 11:19am
As a clinician I think I view this differently. First, because it’s a long term irritant for me, is the exclusive focus on mortality numbers. Second hand smoke can cause asthma attacks and worsen COPD. It is an eye irritant. We know from th surgical literature that SHS increases the risk of laryngospam for kids during surgery.
Second, these studies are difficult to do. There is likely a dose response curve and it’s hard to know the true degree of exposure people have. If you walk in a bar and one person is smoking but walk into the same bar the next day and 20 people are smoking you have higher exposure. How frequently does one have exposure. There is by necessity a lot of self reporting in many of these studies and you end up with a lot of heterogeneity. To offset that we need to look beyond epidemiological studies. In the lab SHS causes changes to both lung and coronary vessel activity pretty rapidly, sometimes causing their function to end up on par with people who have long term exposure ie smokers.
Last, what is the risk/reward here? On the one side we have a small but real risk that will vary with different exposures. On the other side people have the right to impose that risk on others? Smokers can go to private bars if it’s really that important to them.
Steve
Scott Sumner
Nov 6 2024 at 3:27pm
Again, these are NOT arguments for government regulation. Coase’s argument clearly applies to indoor smoking.
Alexander Search
Nov 7 2024 at 10:35pm
Restaurants and hotel lobbies in the 1980s and 1990s could have followed Coase’s lead and charged non-smokers more in order to guarantee them the fully smoke-free environment a lot of non-smokers would have preferred. Franchises exclusively serving non-smokers could have opened. But from what I remember, no company ever did that back in the day.
I suspect that’s because the transaction costs for doing so were too high. Companies didn’t want the costs of non-smoker-exclusive infrastructure. Of course, those costs by themselves, in the *long run* (hardly, though, of help to people with respiratory problems at the time), wouldn’t have prevented services from being eventually tailored to non-smokers. After all, a kosher-food industry exists; non-smoking industries could exist too. However, infrastructure itself wasn’t the only cost factor discouraging non-smoker services. Another impediment, probably a greater one, was human nature. Restaurants in the ’80s and ’90s had smoking sections because they just did. Most owners then weren’t rational independently minded actors, ever looking to arbitrage disagreement over smoking preferences. They were just people, who, as people do, mostly did what everybody else did. They were subject, like all of us, to one broad cultural consensus — decade after decade. Despite a free market, despite demand (or at least, as shown nowadays, potential demand), there weren’t non-smoker-friendly restaurants and bars before the current millennium because there just weren’t.
Ok, but society knows the salience of smoking preferences now, though. So, in 2024, Coasean market mechanisms can go to work, and companies could, now that the consensus has flipped from pro-smoking to anti-smoking, increase their profits by charging a premium to people who’re willing to pay for the privilege of aerosolized tobacco, and customer satisfaction too will be maximized. Right? Well, theoretically, I suppose. But I’m going to guess, human nature will probably still get in the way. Because air filtration is a hard engineering challenge, services tailored for smokers and tolerant non-smokers will, I continue to guess, have to be physically isolated: an Applebee’s for smokers, an Applebee’s for non-smokers; town bingo night for smokers; town bingo night for non-smokers. That segregation — yours vs. mine; can’t we hang out at the same restaurant together?; tribalism —, I bet, would have its own costs that industries would have to cover and pass on. But that’s a fuzzy, loosey-goosey conclusion, I have to admit.
Less fuzzy, though, is the externality that probably every smoker faces. And I don’t think it’s one a Coasean bargain could ever transact away. The interests of smokers’ future selves aren’t at all aligned with the interests of smokers’ past selves. Future smokers can’t enjoy a casual puff on a past cigarette. And past lives don’t cough up tarred lung tissue. The benefits are strictly one-way: the past gets all the fun; the future gets all the emphysema. According to Coase, when a situation unduly favors one party over others, so long as negotiation is feasible, the various parties affected can internalize externality costs by paying the agent responsible for an externality to stop externality-ing. Neighborhoods can pay polluters not to pollute; dentists can pay confectioners to leave town; Google can pay Firefox to be window dressing but not actual search-engine competition. But not-yet-existing future people don’t tend to be very good businessmen. And they don’t have a lobby of lawyers and financial consultants to look out for their interests. Prudent temporarily aged present people might be conscientious enough of their future selves to pay for those future selves’ needs. But the future selves themselves? They can’t enter into any business arrangment. The transaction costs of time travel are too high.
So, although evidence might suggest that second-hand smoke is less dangerous than generally assumed — which is a good thing —, so long as it is demonstrably unhealthy, even if not lethal, to chance people nearby and, more to the point, so long as the preponderance of evidence demonstrates the danger of second-hand smoking to the future selves of the people who cause the second-hand smoking, I probably wouldn’t be among those for whom an appeal to Coase would be a convincing argument. Making smoking more commonplace in private, public-facing businesses like restaurants doesn’t seem to me like a Coase-applicable scenario.
My non-persuadability hinges on philosophical abstractions, I realize: Is a person a cohesive thing, constant across the decades? What is a self in time? How do we compare and value people at different stages in their lives? Which stages merit the most freedom of decision-making?
Also, I do recognize that my “philosophical” stance conveniently goes along with my personal distaste for smoking. Nevertheless, that distaste is not mine alone: Years ago, I rented a house, and a roommate moved into the basement. He was an elderly gentleman. He had emphysema. He never stopped coughing. He needed supplemental oxygen. One night, I called 911. And I never saw him again. So it’s not just me, I don’t think, who considers smoking distasteful. My roommate, former smoker that he was, thought so too. Limiting how much that distasteful activity can be done in private, public-facing businesses seems like a reasonable cross-stage-of-life Pigouvian tax to me.
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In any case, as to this article’s second point, “motivated reasoning” is a pretty slippery claim or argument. Human nature being what it is, charges of “motivated reasoning” are as likely the result of motivated reasoning as are the assertions being critiqued. People who see evidence of “motivated reasoning” are probably always right; but, at the same, they’re likely just as influenced by motivated reasoning themselves. “Motivated reasoning” won’t get the hard problem of epistemology — how do we know what to know — to loosen its white-knuckled grip on our uncertainty any at all.
Alexander Search
Nov 7 2024 at 10:56pm
Sorry about the lack of inter-paragraph spacing in my response.
Every site’s comment section has its own idiosyncrasies, and I guess I don’t comment here enough to have picked up on this one’s yet.
But as to this site’s idiosyncrasies, does it have, by any chance, a feature letting posters edit their comments? I’d like to put some linebreaks in my reply if I could. If not, though, that’s fine — c’est la vie and all that.
Kevin Corcoran
Nov 7 2024 at 12:11pm
As opposed to…what? Going to government-owned bars? I confess I’ve never come across such an establishment – every bar I’m aware of is, in fact, a private establishment.
Dylan
Nov 7 2024 at 1:24pm
I presume that Steve is referring to the exemptions for things like cigar bars, hookah, member clubs that allow smoking, and the other various exceptions to the bans. The fact that not too many of these exists suggests that maybe the demand for them is not that high?
John Smith
Nov 6 2024 at 12:46pm
“Just a reminder to all that I accurately called this election, and had publicly posted in writing beforehand. With my forecast for the electoral margin of victory being very likely to be >95% accurate as well, pending final votes.”
https://www.econlib.org/remunerations-determined-by-markets-or-politics/
Scott Sumner
Nov 6 2024 at 3:15pm
I suspect that I’ll be 100% right on the EC count.
Jose Pablo
Nov 6 2024 at 9:44pm
It is surprising, reading the comments, how easily people forget that asking for government regulation to ban activities that I dislike (and other people love) opens the door for other people to ask for government regulations to ban activities that I love and other people dislike.
Afterall, motivated reasoning will be also available to the haters of activities that I enjoy.
Expanding the realm of collective decisions when this expansion fits me well means that this realm can (and will) be also expanded by others against me. Buchanan did a great job explaining the cost of this in The Calculus of Consent.
Using collective decisions to ban activities I don’t like is a double-edged sword that we should be very careful to brandish.
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