
When I was young, the Democratic Party included African Americans, factory workers, nerdy intellectuals, and many other diverse groups. Democrats and Republicans were roughly equally likely to be pro-choice or pro-life. In many ways, that was a healthy state of affairs. Recently, however, we have increasingly sorted into blue and red tribes, in a number of dimensions.
At some point, even seemingly non-political lifestyle issues became political. President Trump recently announced that he was taking the drug hydroxychloroquine as a precautionary step (and then later stopped doing so). A few days ago, he visited a Ford factory and did not wear a mask in the public part of the visit. (Later he did wear a mask when he was off camera.) President Trump frequently describes himself as a germaphobe. Thus I suspect that his reluctance to wear masks in public settings has a political dimension.
Inevitably, everything the president does is criticized by some and defended by others. But in this post I’m more interested in the way that lifestyle choices become increasingly seen through a political lens.
Consider the following two lifestyles: One person likes to eat lots of juicy steaks. They get high cholesterol and take a statin to control the problem. Another person likes to eat lots of sushi and kale salads, which they view as a healthy diet. Which person is more likely to vote for Trump?
In the 1950s, the question would have seemed absurd. What does diet preference have to do with political affiliation? Today I suspect that most people would see the steak eater who takes a statin as more likely to vote for Trump.
If I told you I had a somewhat “macho” friend who thought wearing a mask was effeminate, and who strongly believed in the effectiveness of taking hydroxychloroquine, who would you guess that he would vote for? And is it a healthy state of affairs to be able to predict political affiliation based on lifestyle issues (or scientific judgments) with no obvious connection to politics? Is it healthy for a country to increasingly sort into red and blue tribes?
I see libertarianism as the ideology that tries to make fewer things political. Thus I’m not pleased to see us move toward an “everything’s political” world. It’s not so much that there’s anything wrong with different points of view on wearing masks or taking particular drugs, it’s that I’d prefer those points of view not be linked to unrelated political ideologies.
PS. I promoted mask wearing when it was considered anti-social to do so. Now I promote them when it’s considered anti-social not to do so. But this view has nothing to do with my politics.
READER COMMENTS
Jonathan S
May 25 2020 at 8:54pm
“When I was young, the Democratic Party included African Americans, factory workers, nerdy intellectuals, and many other diverse groups.”
Typo?
Scott Sumner
May 26 2020 at 12:48pm
Thanks, I fixed it.
Russ Abbott
May 26 2020 at 1:46am
One of the things I like most about your posts is how you discuss many issues independently of politics. Well done.
Ricky
May 26 2020 at 3:14am
Many people are worried about their freedoms. And many people would rather die, then allow the govt to tell them what they may or may not do (including wearing a mask). This is an existentialist attitude, one the United States has always unknowingly adopted. As the great Sartre once said:
“We are condemned to be free”!
Thomas Hutcheson
May 26 2020 at 10:11am
Wearing a mask is not about being free to not to take a protective measure that in fact gives little if any protection, it’s about being free to harm others by infecting them.
TMC
May 26 2020 at 10:55am
This is correct. The political slant in this example is that Trump should wear a mask, when we know he gets tested everyday. If he wants to take a chance on getting infected so be it, but given that everyone around him is tested regularly and the CDC says asymptomatic people are a very low risk, Trump’s greatest threat here would be a trip or fall, or car accident on the way over.
Thomas Hutcheson
May 26 2020 at 12:31pm
Agree. This is not about Trump except as he might want to model civic virtue.
Scott Sumner
May 26 2020 at 12:51pm
If you are still blocked at MoneyIllusion, send me at email at Bentley University and I’ll try to fix it.
ssumner@bentley.edu
Scott Sumner
May 26 2020 at 12:50pm
On the other hand, there are times where Trump seems to want to “set an example”. If so, he should set the correct example.
Michael
May 27 2020 at 8:53am
His stance on the wearing of masks seems like one of those times.
Shane L
May 26 2020 at 5:48am
I’ve been reading for a few years now about the perceived polarisation of American politics from the likes of Lilliana Mason, Arnold Kling and Jonathan Haidt. Here in Ireland we have our own problems, but this kind of polarisation isn’t one of them.
I think this is in large part down to our electoral system. The proportional representation through the single transferable vote (PR-STV) system allows voters to list their preferred candidates by number. Each constituency has several seats in parliament. A formula is used to determine how many first preference votes is needed to qualify the candidate; once a candidate has reached this quota, the second preference on their surplus votes are counted. These second preference votes are then added to the first preference votes already counted. A similar process happens on the bottom end: candidates who receive too few votes are excluded, but their second preference votes are counted.
Well! It’s a bit difficult to explain, but it’s a simple process for voters and it tends to lessen the severe under-representation of smaller parties of the first-past-the-post system. (For example, in the UK general election in 2019, the Conservatives took one seat for every 38,264 votes, while the Greens took one seat for every 866,435 votes.)
Imagine a strongly libertarian voter in the US. Today they might vote Republican, while bitterly opposing Republic policy on war, immigration, etc. because they believe a vote for the Libertarian Party is wasted since LP aren’t likely to win. Under PR-STV, they would be inclined to give the LP their first preference vote, and perhaps the Republicans their second preference vote. They can even choose between candidates in the same party, so they might vote:
Libertarian Party
Republican candidate who favours open borders and free trade
Economically moderate Democrat candidate
Economically left Democrat candidate
Republican candidate who favours strict controls on drugs, trade, migration, etc.
Even if their LP candidate doesn’t win, their vote isn’t wasted because their second and third preference votes could allow the next-best option to win. I imagine this is likely to reduce polarisation because most voters will probably cast votes for several parties.
Every time I vote, I number the entire list of candidates, which usually comes in my constituency to around 14 or 15. This means that I cast votes for several parties.
One of the outcomes of all this is that most of my even passionately political friends don’t tend to identify strongly with a party. They may identify with the left in general, in which case they could vote for Labour, Greens, Sinn Féin, Socialist Workers, Social Democrats, Solidarity – People Before Profit; or they could identify with the right in general, in which case they could vote for Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, or Aontú. If they like red meat, I can’t tell who they’ll vote for. Probably not the Greens! If they like organic almond milk in their coffee, I can’t tell who they’ll vote for.
Sorry for the long post. My point is not that I think the US should tack on PR-STV to your venerable political system. But I do suspect that some of the current polarisation is caused by the institution of first-past-the-post.
tobc
May 26 2020 at 7:25am
While I agree with some of your points, and would love to see a change (although I prefer IRV over STV), I don’t think the system can be blamed for the change. We have been doing first past the post for 200+ years. Why the polarization now?
Shane L
May 26 2020 at 1:47pm
Absolutely, Tobc (and MarkW), and I had thought of adding that but my post was already too long!
Polarisation clearly isn’t inevitable with FPTP, but I imagine it plays a role.
Jon Chenoweth
May 26 2020 at 7:57am
As always, Kling’s three axes explain all. Progressives see the world as oppressors vs. oppressed. Without science, they say, we are left with religion and capitalism, which are both oppressive. So we must follow science, which says to wear masks and to not take unproven drugs. Factory farms are oppressive, so we shouldn’t eat juicy steaks everyday.
Conservatives see the world as civilization vs. barbarism. Maybe masks aren’t barbaric, exactly, but they are foreign to Western Civilization, as are effeminate men, as is thinking that animals have rights.
Libertarians see the world as coercion vs. liberty. So as long as the government doesn’t force you to wear (or not wear) a mask, to take (or not take) a pill, or to eat (or not eat) a steak, we’re good.
There is nothing new about these worldviews. But their saliency has increased proportionally with political polarization, including negative polarization, which makes us feel that everything is more political these days.
MarkW
May 26 2020 at 8:13am
But I do suspect that some of the current polarisation is caused by the institution of first-past-the-post.
I don’t think that can really be it. After all, the U.S. had the same electoral system when Scott was young and partisanship was less intense. The U.S. has gone through periods of both mild and intense partisanship (some more so than now with physical altercations in congress) — and it’s hard to say which is ‘normal’.
Thomas Hutcheson
May 26 2020 at 10:22am
I opposed wearing masks to protect others when the probability of the wearer being infected a — well just thought it was silly, I did not condemn it. When the probabilities changed and it was less improbably that the wearer was infected and could infect and others had more to fear from an unmasked person, i see it as a civic duty. It all depends on the size of the externalities.
nobody.really
May 26 2020 at 3:17pm
Sure–you and your bank-robber friends have been arguing this for years. But until today, it hadn’t occurred to me to praise this practice as non-partisan.
britman
May 27 2020 at 8:39am
A Covid mask has become symbol of fear–not just the virus but the authoritarian impulses that are associated with it. It strikes me that such a sentiment should not be falted by someone one who professes to be libertarian.
Phil H
May 27 2020 at 9:36am
I’m pretty ambivalent about this. I get what Scott’s complaining about. But then I think, only 20 years ago, in a lot of places, having the personal habit of being gay wouldn’t just get you marked out as “of the other party”, it would get you ostracised in many places. Within Scott’s lifetime, having the personal habit of being a woman would effectively disqualify you from college and many of the major professions. In 1990s Britain, I clearly remember the day when I turned up at school in black shoes and white socks, and literally had people point and laugh, because I had not yet learned the social rule that that’s not OK.
These days, we do have many bizarre associations between personal habits and political views/political acceptability. But it’s not the case that those didn’t exist in the past. They just led more directly to social ostracism, rather than today’s rather tame tribal sniping.
That’s progress, I reckon :-/
Scott Sumner
May 27 2020 at 2:24pm
Good point. It’s a mixed bag.
Aaron
May 28 2020 at 10:03am
I believe that the growth of government feeds upon itself. As the government controls more, people further tribalize in order to fight a larger fight than they previously perceived. The spoils for winning the next election seems vastly larger and the losses of losing the next election are greater. I believe the growths in government from 1913-1949 were predominantly viewed as non-partisan and so it didn’t splinter people into tribes, while the growth in government since LBJ is viewed partisan. This, mixed with the decentralization of media has radically changed the landscape.
I don’t root for the collapse of anything. However, it would be nice to experience a decentralization of governance, even if it occurs due to the collapse of workable centralized government.
foosion
May 29 2020 at 8:06am
You should be free to do whatever you want so long as it doesn’t harm others. Not wearing a mask, when you’re near others, risks harming them. Does freedom include the right to harm others without their consent?
Comments are closed.