Arnold Kling

Optimism about Moore's Law

Arnold Kling, Great Questions of Economics
Previous Entry Next Entry

Exponential improvements in productivity are powerful drivers of growth. If this article is correct, then computer power will continue to grow exponentially.

in the next 15 years we could expect to see density increases in the neighborhood of 106 times today's most advanced silicon chips-a threshold of computing power that could support speech, sensory and decision-making functions approximating human intelligence. And it probably could be done with a significant collateral decrease in cost per transistor.

The key is continued reduction in cost. If each gain in the number of transistors per millimeter required heavy investment, at some point growth might stall.

Discussion Question. So far, Moore's Law appears to be driven entirely by supply--as soon as researchers find ways to increase chip densities, the new methods are implemented. Will demand continue to be adequate to justify ongoing investment in better computing technology?

Return to top