Arnold Kling

Margin of Safety

Arnold Kling, Great Questions of Economics
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In What's Your Margin of Safety?, I write

[Benjamin] Graham's "margin of safety" plays the role in stock market valuation that economists usually assign to something called "the risk premium." However, this is a case of bad economic jargon driving out a useful practitioner's concept. There is no way for most economists, much less ordinary investors, to have intuition about what is a reasonable risk premium. But anyone can grasp the concept of a margin of safety.

Discussion Question. How sensitive is the estimate of the intrinsic value of stocks to the forecast for dividend growth? Does this sensitivity require a large margin of safety?

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