Arnold Kling

Bullish on China

Arnold Kling, Great Questions of Economics
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Andy Xie makes a bullish case for the future of China.

China's exports are now equal to 79% of Japan's, compared with 22% in 1990 and 14% in 1980. If it sustains the 12% annual growth rate of the past five years, China's exports will exceed Japan's by 2005 and the US's by 2009.

...China should become a developed economy by 2020, by our estimates. My definition of a developed economy is that 90% of the population have jobs, own their homes, and can afford a vacation every year. In short, I expect China to become a normal economy by then.

Discussion Question. Xie makes no mention of China's political structure. Can a one-party dictatorship, with its need to control information flows, oversee continued economic growth in the information age?

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