Proportionate Belief

Arnold Kling

By Arnold Kling, May 16 2005

In this essay, I argue that

what I call the Law of Proportionate Belief…states that one should believe in a certain proposition or policy prescription in proportion to the arguments for that position.

…What I most despair of is finding a politician who follows the Law of Proportionate Belief. Even a Senator Kerry, who appears to see both sides of many issues, ends up speaking arrogantly (“I’m gonna give you health care.”) Anyone with humility seems to be selected against in the world of politics.

For Discussion. How strongly should one believe in the Law of Proportionate Belief?

Doug Campbell writes, Schneider in 2003 published "shadow economy" estimates (defined broadly as all market-based, legal production of goods and services deliberately concealed from the authorities) for countries including: Zimbabwe, estimated at a whopping 63.2 percent of GDP, Thailand's at 54.1 percent, and Bolivia'...

May 16 2005

Behavioral Economics

Neuroeconomics

Arnold Kling

One of the most interesting survey articles I've seen in a long time came out in the recent Journal of Economic Literature, although apparently it's been kicking around for a couple of years. It is by Colin Camerer, George Loewenstein, and Drazen Prelec on the topic of Neuroeconomics. Excerpts cannot do it justice, b...

May 16 2005

Politics and Economics

Proportionate Belief

Arnold Kling

In this essay, I argue that what I call the Law of Proportionate Belief...states that one should believe in a certain proposition or policy prescription in proportion to the arguments for that position. ...What I most despair of is finding a politician who follows the Law of Proportionate Belief. Even a Senator Kerry...

Proportionate Belief

Arnold Kling

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