Interesting email from Todd Proebsting, reprinted with his permission.
Dear Prof. Caplan,
Your recent attempt at a wager on Iran’s nuclear progress, and the subsequent exchange with the author about why you wanted 10:1 odds reminded me that the CIA tried to quantify what certain claims meant:
| 100% Certainty |
| The General Area of Possibility |
| 93% |
give or take about 6% |
Almost certain |
| 75% |
give or take about 12% |
Probable |
| 50% |
give or take about 10% |
Chances about even |
| 30% |
give or take about 10% |
Probably not |
| 7% |
give or take about 5% |
Almost certainly not |
| 0% Impossibility |
It’s from a 50-year old CIA proposal.
It’s interesting to me that “Almost certain” was only 93%. I think the CIA would have argued that you should have been asking for even longer odds given the original claim.
Cheers,
Todd Proebsting