James Hamilton provided one of my all-time favorite quotations: You could argue that if the Fed is doing its job properly, any recession should have been impossible to predict ahead of time. In many cases, the disasters that strike us are unexpected.  The 1973 oil embargo.  The 9/11 attacks.  The Lehman moment. Many of the disasters that are anticipated, somehow fail to arrive.  I recall a feeling in 2015 that China was sliding into recession.  I recall that many experts...