By Arnold Kling
Today’s Wall Street Journal reports on Alan Blinder’s estimates of jobs that might go offshore.
he has been refining those estimates, by painstakingly ranking 817 occupations, as described by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, to identify how likely each is to go overseas. From that, he derives his latest estimate that between 30 million and 40 million jobs are vulnerable.
I do not think that the education systems in India and other countries are up to delivering anything like thirty million skilled workers.
However, I do expect that in another decade there will be tens of millions of Americans in different occupations than they are today. Technological progress will be far more important than trade in causing these shifts. More churning in employment will be caused by computers and robots than by trade.