The Other Demographic Suicide
By Bryan Caplan
Arnold’s concerned about demographic projections of impending Democratic super-majorities. But there’s a major demographic trend going the other way: Whites in Republican states have a lot more kids than whites in Democratic states. My source is none other than Steve Sailer, who strangely manages to explain the facts in The American Conservative without telling his readers that the future isn’t quite as bleak as they’ve been led to believe:
The most fecund whites are in heavily Mormon
Utah, which, not coincidentally, was the only state where Bush received
over 70 percent. White women average 2.45 babies in Utah compared to
merely 1.11 babies in Washington, D.C., where Bush earned but 9
percent. The three New England states where Bush won less than 40
percent–Massachusetts, Vermont, and Rhode Island–are three of the four
states with the lowest white birthrates, with little Rhode Island
dipping below 1.5 babies per woman.
Bush carried the 19 states with the highest white fertility (just as he
did in 2000), and 25 out of the top 26, with highly unionized Michigan
being the one blue exception to the rule. (The least prolific red
states are West Virginia, North Dakota, and Florida.)
In sharp contrast, Kerry won the 16 states at the bottom of the list,
with the Democrats’ anchor states of California (1.65) and New York
(1.72) having quite infertile whites.
Among the 50 states plus Washington, D.C., white total fertility
correlates at a remarkably strong 0.86 level with Bush’s percentage of
the 2004 vote.
Once you combine this info with a plausible inter-generational partisanship correlation, I’ve got to wonder: Why are fears about “demographic suicide” so concentrated on the American right? Where are the Democratic pundits pleading with their loyalists to make more babies?