Almost four years ago, I made the following bet with Jeremy Rabkin:
If France, Germany, and Italy remain on the Euro as of December 31, 2010, Rabkin owes me $20. Otherwise, I owe him $20.
I win.
Almost four years ago, I made the following bet with Jeremy Rabkin:
If France, Germany, and Italy remain on the Euro as of December 31, 2010, Rabkin owes me $20. Otherwise, I owe him $20.
I win.
Dec 31 2010
On both of Arnold's points (see "Where I Differ with Some Libertarians,") I agree somewhat with Arnold and disagree somewhat. In this post, I focus on his point #1 about libertarians and foreign policy. Like Arnold and unlike Bryan, I am not a pacifist. I've written about this here. One excerpt: I take "pacifism" t...
Dec 31 2010
I don't know what exactly inspired this post (probably Bryan's writing on patriotism and political correctness). Anyway, here are a couple of issues where not all libertarians agree. 1. I just cannot buy into pacifism as some libertarians express it. It seems to me that some libertarians link arms with the far lef...
Dec 31 2010
Almost four years ago, I made the following bet with Jeremy Rabkin: If France, Germany, and Italy remain on the Euro as of December 31, 2010, Rabkin owes me $20. Otherwise, I owe him $20.I win.
READER COMMENTS
Brandon Reinhart
Dec 31 2010 at 6:16am
Well what are you going to spend it on?
I recommend another bet. You’re on a winning streak. đ
Nick Rowe
Dec 31 2010 at 8:09am
Don’t count your chickens till midnight (Euro-time-zone?)!
ajb
Dec 31 2010 at 8:13am
This is why I do not bet. I’ll bet that most of Caplan’s bets will pay off as he’s careful and focused on highly specific ideas. But a few big bets on major issues will fail — just not often. Sadly, the large number of small bets he will win will raise his status as an analyst of important issues despite being wrong on weights and valuation.
Here’s the analogy. If you were right on the housing bubble in 2000 but kept placing small bets every year, you would lose enough to just give up. Worse, betting markets would (and did) raise the status of those who bet on both the stock market and the housing markets increasing their ability to influence policy above and beyond the housing market. Since no amount of money that would be realistically bet is worth the loss to the world of raising Caplan’s status as an analyst of fundamental problems, one should not take these bets.
Patrick L
Dec 31 2010 at 9:40am
Better to be lucky than good.
Jacob Oost
Dec 31 2010 at 11:03pm
There really ought to be a betting clearinghouse web site just for economists, like that political one that Rasmussen Reports links to. If I had the time and web design know-how, I’d do it myself.
Yancey Ward
Jan 1 2011 at 10:52am
Use the $20 to buy Euros.
Bill
Jan 3 2011 at 12:01pm
Use the $20 to short Euros. đ
Comments are closed.