David Leonhardt Signals a Bottom
By Arnold Kling
The most worrisome aspect about our current slump is that it combines obvious short-term problems — from the financial crisis — with less obvious long-term problems. Those long-term problems include a decade-long slowdown in new-business formation, the stagnation of educational gains and the rapid growth of industries with mixed blessings, including finance and health care.
Pointer from Tyler Cowen, who might as well have ghost-written the piece.
All this gloom and doom might be right. But it might be a buy signal.
–I keep reading stories that say that we have discovered a fair amount of good old-fashioned oil in this hemisphere. It will be a great day when we can replace our Nobel Laureate energy secretary with somebody whose understanding of physics consists of “Drill, baby, drill.”
–Our housing policy of “extend and pretend” with delinquent mortgage borrowers will eventually peter out. We’ll let the market work, after we have tried everything else. Once we do, housing construction will soar.
–The stock of consumer durable goods, like cars, is getting old. When other sectors turn around, production and distribution in this sector will expand rapidly.