Indian Fertility: A Bet With John Nye
By Bryan Caplan
I think that bad economic policy, not “overpopulation,” is India’s main economic problem. But whatever you think about the social effects of population growth, it’s clear that Indian fertility is sharply declining. I expect this rapid decline to continue, but my colleague John Nye isn’t convinced. As a result, we’ve agreed to the following bet:
If India’s (Total Fertility Rate in 2032 + Total Fertility Rate in 2033)/2<2.0,
John owes me $200.
If India’s (Total Fertility Rate in 2032 + Total Fertility Rate in 2033)/2 ≥2.0,
I owe John $100.
We’ve agreed to use the average of the World Bank and United Nations estimates of TFR.
Hopefully I’ll lose!