
Imagine you have a team designing a new bridge. One guy suggests that cost could be reduced if you used less steel. Of course that might make the bridge more susceptible to collapse, so he also suggests reducing the force of gravity in the area of the bridge. Obviously, the idea would be viewed as highly impractical.
This is roughly how I feel about proposals to end wage stickiness. There are a few types of wage stickiness that could be addressed by economic reforms—notably the minimum wage laws. But the vast bulk of wage stickiness is an inevitable part of a free market economy, not subject to public policy.
David Beckworth has an excellent podcast with Jonathon Hazell, which discusses important new research on the topic. Some economists had argued that wage stickiness was actually not much of a problem, as the wages or new hires was quite flexible, and it was new hires that mattered for decisions to change output at the margin.
Research by Hazell and his co-author Bledi Taska found that even the wages of new hires are quite sticky, at least in the downward direction:
In the end, the finding is very simple, which is that, surprisingly, wages for new hires are, in fact, quite downwardly rigid, though flexible upwards. . . .
I think, probably, it’s to do with internal equity, as originally conceived of in this very famous book by this Yale professor, Truman Bewley, which is called, Why Don’t Wages Fall During Recessions? It’s an amazing book. Bewley imagines the following, that, I think, probably applies to my analysis. He says, “Look, the first logic, the simple logic, that you might have, is that wages for new hires would fall during recessions,” exactly because of the LSE professor example. I become a new professor, I’m willing to accept a lower wage, because I have no reference point.
Then Bewley says, “Not so fast.” What about this idea that he calls internal equity? Internal equity works like the following. I arrive at LSE, and I go around the hallways, and I say, “I just got hired, great job, I’m on $10 an hour.” Then, my colleague, who’s the same rank as me, he’s not a tenured, chaired professor, he’s just another assistant professor who got hired just the year before, he says, “Well, you’re only being paid $10 an hour, I’m being paid $20 an hour, they’ve screwed you.”
People occasionally ask me why we need to stabilize nominal GDP growth. Why not instead try to eliminate wage rigidity, and let the free market determine NGDP?
First of all, it’s not clear exactly what the “free market” means in reference to money, which due to network effects is a natural monopoly. The monopolist that controls the supply of money will always need some sort of policy regarding the value of money, even if by default. So why not a sensible policy, which avoids aggravating the distortions caused by wage stickiness?
As in so many areas of life, the pragmatic solution is often the best solution.
READER COMMENTS
MarkW
Jan 31 2024 at 11:50am
I wonder if the rise of remote work (where co-workers engage in much less informal social interaction) has reduced stickiness at all?
Jim Glass
Jan 31 2024 at 11:30pm
The reported mass reluctance to go back to work in the office itself looks like a form of wage stickiness to me.
vince
Jan 31 2024 at 3:22pm
It’s no surprise that wages are downward sticky in a regime of manufactured inflation. The CPI was 10 in 1913. Now it’s 305. Would wages be sticky if the CPI were still 10?
Scott Sumner
Jan 31 2024 at 11:57pm
“Would wages be sticky if the CPI were still 10? ”
Yes.
JP
Feb 1 2024 at 2:54pm
I would be curious of your thoughts on William Poole’s article “Is Inflation Too Low” where he makes the following claim, “A second flaw in the grease-the-wheels argument is that it imagines only two mechanisms for achieving adjustments to a worker’s relative wage: Either cut the nominal wage, or let all other prices around it rise. In fact, the workings of labor markets suggest at least two other mechanisms, and so the presence of nominal wage rigidity – were it to exist – might not be a hindrance in a zero-inflation world.”
The 1990’s had lots of good back and forth on whether zero was the optimal inflation rate, and much of it centered around the stickiness of wages.
Scott Sumner
Feb 2 2024 at 12:29am
There is a great deal of uncertainty as to whether zero inflation is much of a problem for labor market efficiency. I’m agnostic on the question, and the answer may differ from one economy to another.
steve
Jan 31 2024 at 3:28pm
It’s good to have literature to support this but I think if you just asked people who have ever run a business/corporation and been involved in hiring they could have told you this is true. Also, I completely agree that worrying about things you cant change is a waste fo time. In the short run you arent going to change human nature on any kind of scale. Going up is also an issue. In a tight labor market we had to offer signing bonuses. The people hired the year before were pissed because they didnt get them. Created a lot of unhappiness.
Steve
Dylan
Jan 31 2024 at 3:59pm
I’ve posted links to a ton of papers on this before showing that while wages may be sticky to a degree, income is not. This holds true in good times and bad and across countries in data sets stretching back to the 80s. This intuitively makes sense, because even when salaries might be sticky, total compensation usually includes a large discretionary portion. When I got hired at my last job, the comp was a salary + a target 20% bonus, and that total number was what was quoted to me in all my hiring paperwork, but that 20% was just a target and floated freely, many years it would be less, down to 0% even, and some years it would be up to 40%. This was at a very large company with over 100,000 employees, and this structure applied to almost everyone. People’s income’s fluctuated by big swings year over year.
In less skilled jobs, there are still lots of ways to cut income by reducing hours (particularly overtime pay). Which happened to the janitor working my building last year, causing his income to go down by about 30% even though his wage was the same.
Even base salary stickiness is not much of a thing anymore. I’ve known lots of people that have faced the choice of taking a 20%+ haircut on base salary or lose their job. They weren’t happy about it and it was bad for morale, but they took the pay cut. Outside of government and academia, I know very few people that have any kind of income stability year to year.
Scott Sumner
Feb 1 2024 at 12:00am
“I know very few people that have any kind of income stability year to year.”
I know lots of people who do. That’s why we need stable NGDP growth.
Dylan
Feb 1 2024 at 6:07am
Well, at least according to this Jardin, Solon, and Vigdor paper, those people are in quite the minority. Only somewhere between 2.5% and 7.7% of the workers they studied had zero wage changes quarter over quarter. Compared to 20.4%-33.1% that saw wage declines over the same period (2005-2015)
https://www.nber.org/papers/w25470
Scott Sumner
Feb 2 2024 at 12:33am
Most of those cuts are probably workers working fewer hours, not a reduction in the hourly wage rate—which is the real problem for monetary policy.
When I worked at Bentley, almost everyone had a wage that usually did not change form one quarter to the next. My wife worked in a private company, and they also had once a year wage adjustments. It’s quite common.
Dylan
Feb 2 2024 at 6:54am
If you read the paper, they are making a comparison based on hourly earnings, which the Washington data set allows for. It does include a reduction in the average hourly wage if overtime is reduced, which is what I suspect is driving most of the reduction for hourly employees. Or if a bonus is reduced or not given, that will also show up as a decline in hourly wages.
Their data set doesn’t include changes in benefits, so an employers contribution to health insurance premiums going up won’t be counted. So I suspect that the true rate of employees having nominal wage cuts is even higher.
And none of this takes into account the increase in self-employed or gig economy type work, which makes up as much as 36% of the workforce according to a McKinsey study from 2022.
Thomas L Hutcheson
Jan 31 2024 at 6:44pm
I agree on stickiness, but I’d point out that not all non-wage prices are perfectly flexible, either.
My policy conclusion, however, is that the Fed should aim for (target) a rate of inflation that best facilitates adjustments in relative prices in the face of wage and price stickiness and the average level and frequency of shocks that create the need for relative price flexibility. That gets us to an average inflation target. However for time to time (and I think COVID and recovery was one of those times) shocks are larger and the Fed should be flexible to temporarily permit/engineer over-target inflation. That gets us to Flexible Average Inflation Targeting, FAIT.
JP
Feb 1 2024 at 2:56pm
Like the productivity norm Selgin has advocated for or something else?
Jim Glass
Feb 1 2024 at 12:14am
Yup. Two reasons:
(1) Standard economics. Look at labor unions — if they are offered either a 10% across-the-board pay cut or the layoff of 10% of workers with wages sticking the same for the rest, they choose the latter near every time. After all, it’s a 9 to 1 vote. But even with no union, if a company imposes a “fair” 10% wage cut on everyone, the result is that its best workers flee to less stressed competitors who are happy to pick them up at their full pay, while the company is left with its worst workers, who are demoralized to make things worse. So the companies do better by leaving pay the same and just chopping 10% of the staff. Businesses learned this good and hard during the big 1982 recession. It’s the same when offering voluntary early retirement packages: offer the same packages to everyone and the top workers leave, the worst stay. So now “selected” employees get them as standard practice.
(2) Behavioral psychology. Human being are seriously upset by visible loss of pay and status. That’s why they will accept an ‘invisible’ 2% loss in real pay every year to inflation, but will protest, strike and quit over the clearly visible insult of a 2% cut in dollar salary. Of course, people object, fight and quit over loss of status even with no real loss of pay. And not just in the business world. It goes back to evolutionary ages when loss of status could = death. That may be obsolete now, but it is cooked into our genes, and is very well documented in both psychological and business literature and data. In coming years evolutionary psychology is going to be increasingly recognized as a cause of many of our troubling persistent market failures, I will bet dollars to Zimbabwean pennies.
vince
Feb 1 2024 at 1:19am
There’s no natural law that says wages have to be sticky downward. I agree with your second reason, it’s psychological. Inflation distorts price signals. With inflation being the norm, it’s built into the system to expect wage increases and never decreases.
Dylan wrote about employees whose wages fluctuate with the performance. Those employers don’t seem to have a sticky wage problem. The employees accept a different norm.
Dylan
Feb 1 2024 at 6:20am
The behavioral part seems well solved by having a portion of your wages discretionary? I feel less bad about not getting my bonus than I do about having my wage cut, even though those are functionally the same and an easy way to give downward flexibility in wages of 20%.
And, there are other ways to reduce wages that are less visible in the data, but are done all the time. You can increase the employees share of health benefits. Stop allowing overtime. Get rid of the free coffee.
vince
Feb 1 2024 at 12:15pm
Another example is stock options. Also, some 401Ks have discretionary profit sharing.
Jeff
Feb 2 2024 at 2:45am
“Of course, people object, fight and quit over loss of status even with no real loss of pay. And not just in the business world. It goes back to evolutionary ages when loss of status could = death. That may be obsolete now, but it is cooked into our genes”
How is it obsolete? Lower SES absolutely leads to lower life expectancy even today.
Status systems are of course features, not bugs, that are deeply related to natural selection.
The meta-thesis would be that something like stabilizing NGDP is simply a means of co-opting a “legacy” status system to seize status for those whose brains can effortlessly do logarithms all the time.
Jim Glass
Feb 2 2024 at 7:44pm
During the millennia of our evolutionary pre-history losing status in one’s small tribe striving to exist could = literal death (or loss of chance to mate, the same thing for evolution.) So being very sensitive to one’s status, and slights to it, was highly adaptive.
In our world today therapists everywhere gain full employment from people traumatized by feeling disrespected at the family reunion, the niece’s wedding, by one’s “partner”, best friends (watch the movie Mean Girls, the original), on Twitter and Facebook, by coworkers, the list is endless. And they carry grudges. Read Dear Abby, Caroline Hax, the rest. Fat Phobia. Need I mention the campus and social crusades against “microaggressions”? Is all this evolutionarily adaptive today? Except for the therapists?
The shrinks say one slight (perceived) disrespect offsets five to seven positive interactions. That was totally adaptive when loss of status could be fatal — not any more. Therapists tell their clients, “to be happy and productive in life, ignore the perceived slights, nobody can make you feel bad about yourself except you, build on the good in every relationship.” But people blow up their own lives over this ratio all the time.
Relationship psychologists say they can predict which married couples will divorce with 95% accuracy just by watching the ratio. I have a friend who had a vey happy career rising to be a top lawyer at a big corporation. Then he got passed over for the #1 job in a way that he felt was totally unfair. This guy is Mr. Everyone Be Calm and Think Straight both personally and professionally, but when his status was slighted he went nuts. He was about to sue his employer when his own lawyers asked him, “Do you really want this job?” Then he realized that no, he had never wanted the job, he was just pissed about being disrespected. Now he warns people, “I almost blew up my career because I wasn’t offered a job I didn’t want. Don’t let it happen to you”.
Features often become quite buggy when the environment they were designed to operate in changes. It’s hard to find an environment that has changed more than the human environment during 400,000+ years of pre-history versus today. Our operating system today has bugs aplenty.
Rajat
Feb 1 2024 at 3:52am
I agree about the value of trying to change nominal wage rigidity. About the podcast, unfortunately Hazell didn’t provide any background for lay listeners like me as to why Pissaridis thought new hires’ wage rigidity was so important. From a ‘NGDP is important’ perspective, even if new hires’ wages were flexible, if there is insufficient money to pay all employed workers at existing nominal wages, we could expect to see higher unemployment even if new workers could be hired more cheaply – unless existing workers on historical wages could be seamlessly replaced by new workers on lower wages.
Another aspect of the Hazell discussion I found interesting was the discussion of his work on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. My takeaway is that if the NKPC posits a relationship between labour market ‘slack’, supply shocks and inflation expectations and the role of slack is empirically unstable while inflation expectations are seen as the key demand-side driver and highly responsive to the central bank’s prevailing stance of monetary policy, then why not cut to the chase by ditching slack from the equation and just accepting that the central bank determines demand-side inflation? I find it strange how super-smart people like Hazell can grow up reading blogs like yours and David Beckworth’s and not question the fruitfulness of devoting their research attention to concepts like the NKPC. I even heard Hazell refer to a fiscal spending multiplier when commenting on why inflation rose so much in 2021-22!
Finally, I thought Hazell’s paper on using US regional variations in unemployment and inflation to test the slope of the NKPC raised an interesting issue. He said that using regional data allowed him to control for the role of inflation expectations, because with a single central bank, all US states have the same inflation expectations. But I would have thought that the implication of a single central bank is that all US states get the same NGDP growth. States with more flexible supply-sides (eg Texas and some southern states) might see higher real growth and less inflation from a positive demand shock – and therefore exhibit lower inflation expectations – than western and north eastern states. Would you agree?
Scott Sumner
Feb 2 2024 at 12:37am
No, I’d expect faster NGDP growth in states like Texas. More likely, inflation rates would be similar and real growth rates would depend on supply side policies.
Knut P. Heen
Feb 1 2024 at 11:41am
Both wages and dividends seem sticky until the corporation faces bankruptcy. At that point, both wages and dividends are no longer sticky. Hence, neither wages nor dividends are sticky.
What looks like stickiness is actually an insurance arrangement rather than stickiness per se. The price of exchange traded commodities is certainly not sticky, but the pay of someone farming a commodity may be fairly stable by the use of forwards (i.e. farmers selling their crop at a fixed price to someone who is better able to carry the risk). Corporations insure their employees in much the same way by paying expected wages minus an insurance fee. The risk is absorbed by the stockholders. This is why wages generally don’t fall in a recession while profits do turn into losses. Corporations facing bankruptcy have to renege on the insurance arrangement to avoid liquidation.
Scott Sumner
Feb 2 2024 at 12:39am
“Both wages and dividends seem sticky until the corporation faces bankruptcy. At that point, both wages and dividends are no longer sticky. Hence, neither wages nor dividends are sticky.”
Here you are mixing up wage stickiness and wage rigidity. I think what you want to say is that wages are sticky in the short run, but not rigid in the long run.
TGGP
Feb 2 2024 at 12:06pm
I don’t think the analogy to gravity is a good one, because gravity has been constant throughout all of history while wage stickiness has not. My understanding is that the 1920-1921 recession did not have nearly as much stickiness as the Great Depression.
Matthias
Feb 4 2024 at 5:19am
George Selgin’s works on free banking give me the impression that money is not a natural monopoly. However the unit of account has strong network effects, and that’s what your argument needs.
You mention minimum wage laws, or rather repealing them. Another area to look at for repealing is the restrictions placed Uber style gig work. Uber drivers have basically no wage stickiness.
Dylan
Feb 4 2024 at 8:51am
And, as I mentioned above, about a third of the workforce has some type of gig work or self employment. And, around half of the workforce is paid hourly. And, about 40% of workers have some type of yearly bonus that averages 11% of income. These categories overlap, but it still seems like the number of employees with true wage stickiness is fairly small?
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