
When we teach false things to our students there’s usually an explanation. Thus, today it’s trendy to teach about the “myth of the model minority”. But that claim is itself a myth, as Asian-Americans are indeed a model minority; at least if by model minority you mean relatively successful—and what else could it mean? Presumably there’s an agenda here; perhaps we don’t want other minorities to feel bad.
In economics, we teach many different myths. Here I’ll list a few and then speculate as to what sort of hidden agenda might explain these myths.
1. We teach our students that before the Fed was created, our banking system was highly unstable due to a lack of regulation. Economists such as Larry White and George Selgin have punctured this myth. Less regulated banking systems in places like Canada were far more stable than the US system, and our worst banking panics and depressions occurred after the Fed was created. Our banking instability was caused by misguided regulations.
2. I’m told that German students are taught that the hyperinflation of 1920-23 led to the rise of the Nazis. Actually, the Nazi party was quite weak as late as 1929, and then soared in popularity during the severe deflation of 1929-33.
Think about the attitude of American intellectuals toward banking regulation, and the attitude of German intellectuals toward inflation, and then think about whether these attitudes might have been shaped by the myths that we teach our students.
3. Our students are taught that stock prices reached wildly overvalued levels in mid-1929, and that it was inevitable that the “bubble” would burst. In fact, stock prices were quite reasonable even at the peak of the 1929 stock boom. Then 71 years later, a similar myth would be created about the stock boom of 2000. Then 6 years later another myth about a housing price “bubble“.
4. Our students are taught that FDR produced a rapid recovery from the Depression with a highly expansionary fiscal policy, and that the relapse into depression in 1937 was caused by a tight fiscal policy. Actually, both events were caused by shifts in monetary policy. Fiscal policy was not particularly expansionary under FDR (until WWII).
5. Our students are taught that President Johnson’s deficit spending caused inflation to rise sharply during the 1960s. Actually, Johnson did not run large budget deficits, and it was monetary policy that drove inflation sharply higher in the late 1960s.
6. Our students are taught that supply shocks explain the high inflation of the 1970s, even though real GDP rose at well over 3%/year during 1971-81 and it was the nominal GDP growth of 11% that caused the high inflation. In other words, monetary policy.
7. Our students are taught that Reagan’s budget deficits boosted aggregate demand, producing the fast growth of the 1980s, even though growth in aggregate demand actually slowed during the 1980s.
8. Our students are taught that the 1987 stock crash didn’t produce the sort of depression that the equally bad 1929 stock crash produced, because this time the Fed aggressively cut interest rates. Actually, the Fed cut interest rates more aggressively after the 1929 crash. It is accurate to teach students that monetary policy was more expansionary after the 1987 crash, but monetary policy isn’t about interest rates.
9. We teach our students that the US government can borrow at very low rates because the dollar is the international reserve currency (the “exorbitant privilege”), even though most other developed countries borrow at lower rates than the US government.
10. We teach our students that the Great Recession was caused by the crash of the “unregulated” US housing and banking markets even though the people that proposed that theory generally expected the recession to be much milder in supposedly “regulated” Europe, and even though the recession was actually far worse in Europe. Of course the ECB had a much tighter monetary policy. Perhaps we don’t want our students to think that central banks might have caused the Great Recession.
11. We teach our students that the Fed did everything it could to prevent the Great Recession, but it was out of ammunition due to the zero bound problem, even though interest rates were not cut to 0.25% until mid-December 2008, a year into the recession and a time when output was already nearing the recession lows. And even though the Fed enacted interest on reserves in October 2008, a contractionary policy. And the Fed refused to cut interest rates after Lehman failed in September 2008. Excuses made for the ECB are even more absurd, as they didn’t hit the zero bound until 2013.
12. We teach our students that a foolish policy of “fiscal austerity” slowed the recovery from the Great Recession, even though the recovery sped up after fiscal austerity was enacted in January 2013 (due to easier money).
13. Our explanation of the 2008 banking crisis focuses on big banks and subprime mortgages, whereas the biggest problem was small and mid-sized banks with bad commercial loans.
14. We are told that in late 2007 and early 2008 we slid into recession because velocity slowed down—the Fed was printing money. Actually, the Fed stopped increasing the monetary base in late 2007 and early 2008, and we went into recession despite velocity increasing.
I see some common themes in these myths:
1. We want our students to believe that fiscal policy is powerful and monetary policy is weak.
2. We want our students to believe that monetary policy is about interest rates.
3. We want our students to believe that market economies are unstable, in need of regulation. We want them to believe that asset price bubbles are real, and can cause problems.
4. We want them to believe that big business is the villain and the government is the hero.
To summarize, we don’t teach true facts, we teach facts that we’d like to believe are true.
READER COMMENTS
John Hall
Sep 15 2021 at 6:07am
Good piece.
You say, “To summarize, we don’t teach true facts, we teach facts that we’d like to believe are true.”
I might phrase this instead as “To summarize, we don’t teach true history, we teach the history that we’d like to believe is true.”
or perhaps, something along the lines of, we tell stories that we want to believe are true, rather than what is actually true.
ssumner
Sep 15 2021 at 8:28am
Yes, that is a better way to phrase it.
MarkW
Sep 15 2021 at 7:28am
There seems to be just as much a problem with ‘normative economics’ as there is with normative sociology.
Andrew Clough
Sep 15 2021 at 9:14am
On 4, I was really surprised when reading Freedom from Fear, the Oxford history of the US book on the period, that one of the main differences between the Republican and Democrat platforms when FDR was elected was that the Democrats were promising to balance the federal budget.
Mark Brophy
Sep 15 2021 at 12:57pm
Students are also taught that Hoover did nothing when he doubled the federal budget. Hoover and Roosevelt were both socialists.
ssumner
Sep 15 2021 at 1:23pm
The left likes to portray Hoover as laissez-faire, but he was far from that.
Phil H
Sep 15 2021 at 9:26am
I’m not so sure about number two, just because that kind of causality doesn’t necessarily have to be immediate. I think the way it’s phrased is more often something like, the economic instability of the 20s created the conditions in which the rise of a strongman party was much more likely. Though I agree that the one-sentence takeaway version of that which everyone remembers is “hyperinflation causes Nazis”, which does suffer from the weakness that you point out.
Brexit seems like a point of comparison to me: no single event caused it, and UKIP (the political party that campaigned for Brexit) never became powerful, but a steady dripfeed of campaigning and negative press over years created the conditions for it to be possible. Similarly, the steady dripfeed of economic misery during the 1920s (plus some enduring myths about German superiority) led to Nazis, maybe?
Capt. J Parker
Sep 15 2021 at 12:26pm
It’s not just our students who are taught this. Press reporting on current price increases is chock full of cost-push inflation theorizing and thin (IMHO) on discussions of how monetary policy affects the price level. Oh for the days when Milton Freedman had a column in Newsweek.
I have a friend and neighbor who is a tenured, chaired professor of Political Science at a prestigious Boston/Cambridge area university who argued to me that the principal thing Volcker did to lower inflation was change expectations, particularly union expectations about wage increases. My claim that monetary policy was Volckers primary tool to change expectations was new to him and a thought he was inclined to dispute.
TMC
Sep 15 2021 at 12:30pm
Nice list!
Question on the pre-WW2 Germany point. Do you generally think deflation is worse than hyper inflation (doses matter of course)?
Henri Hein
Sep 15 2021 at 1:06pm
I was taught in Danish schools, not German ones. I was taught that the Nazis used hyperinflation to quickly settle debt from the WWI settlements. Even at the time, it sounded suspicious to me.
I’ve seen prominent Keynesians refer to this interpretation. At least Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman has referred to anno 1937 as the austerity boogeyman.
Mark Brady
Sep 16 2021 at 10:12pm
“I was taught that the Nazis used hyperinflation to quickly settle debt from the WWI settlements.”
Were you really taught this? How does this statement make any sense when the Nazis did not achieve power until Adolf Hitler was appointed chancellor of Germany on 30 January 1933?
Henri Hein
Sep 17 2021 at 1:21pm
At least, I have a clear memory of learning it that way. It would have been one of my first social studies lessons, before we had a dedicated history teacher, and I learned other wrong things about history from our general teacher (he was excellent in teaching language, though). My example is hopefully not typical.
OneEyedMan
Sep 15 2021 at 1:29pm
Re: #9 / “exorbitant privilege”
Your quote implies that this is just about nominal interest rates, but that doesn’t seem like the right comparison. You’d want to adjust for inflation and risk to make this comparison. That is, are risk adjusted expected real returns on US Treasuries lower than that of other countries? The exorbitant privilege Wikipedia page cites evidence that it shows up in FDI, I guess because Americans hold higher yielding foreign assets while foreigners hold low yielding domestic assets, leading to positive carry for America that boosts national income. If that’s true, I don’t understand the mechanism unless it also suppresses the (risk adjusted real) domestic rates.
ssumner
Sep 15 2021 at 9:04pm
Real rates in Europe (Germany) are also generally lower. (Inflation in Europe has mostly been less than 1% lower, while nominal rates are more than 1% lower.) Not sure how to do risk adjusted, but Treasuries are viewed as low risk.
OneEyedMan
Sep 17 2021 at 10:55am
Many European nations have a AAA rating compared with AA+ in the US, but I agree that doesn’t seem like much of a distinction to justify observed differences in spreads.
marcus nunes
Sep 15 2021 at 3:41pm
A note on the absurdity of “exorbitant privilege’s”
https://thefaintofheart.wordpress.com/2014/07/25/a-useless-endeavor/
john hare
Sep 15 2021 at 5:59pm
Not sure if this fits in with the discussion properly. I think it matters.
Many children grow up constantly hearing “You don’t want to work like I did, you need to go to college.” Growing up hearing that you don’t want to work is a serious disservice to child, parent, and society. College is often seen as the get out of work card. Similar to ice cream after chores with the child hearing ice cream loud and clear with chores a necessary evil that might even be avoided altogether.
The problem being obvious to most here that anything you strive for takes effort which is sometimes known as work.
mbka
Sep 15 2021 at 9:47pm
Scott,
I think it’s worse – those who teach these “facts” genuinely believe they are true. Speaking with finance professors on occasion, not a single one deviates from that standard narratives that you so well outlined above. Talk about the tyranny of received ideas.
Thomas Lee Hutcheson
Sep 16 2021 at 7:08am
Good list, but they are not really myths, they are just bad history or modeling. Atlas holding the sky on his shoulders is not like the Fed being unable to produce more inflation in 2008-2020.
Ben
Sep 16 2021 at 8:07am
Regarding #2, my high school Economics teacher in Canada taught us the same thing. I did not know that was a myth until I read this post. Thanks!
Carl
Sep 16 2021 at 11:12am
If I start with the simple hypothesis that government funding of education has increased the supply of teachers who favor government funding of things, I can explain 1, 3 and 4. But I’m not sure what explains 2.
And, are these myths less prevalent in private schools than public schools?
Henri Hein
Sep 16 2021 at 11:45am
If you want to convince students that central banks are great, you teach them 1. Inflation is bad, 2. Central banks prevent inflation. What could be better ammunition for 1 than that inflation caused the Nazi rise?
Mark Z
Sep 16 2021 at 9:25pm
I think 2 has appeal because the Great Depression and deflation occurred everywhere, whereas as hyperinflation was specific to Germany, and so seems like a better explanation for a specifically German phenomenon. Moreover, the NSDAP itself was intensely anti-inflation, so they themselves seemed to believe fear of inflation was important in putting them in power.
Michael Rulle
Sep 16 2021 at 3:34pm
Excellent. Economics is an amazing discipline. The subject matter is exceedingly complex—how is it that mankind can continue to improve its material well being—even in the face of myths. We just plow forward. And when through great effort and stupidity, we sometimes literally move backward —or fail to keep up with the leaders (Mao, Hitler, Stalin/Soviets for example) we still has a whole keep going.
Yet, we are not merely a complex hive of interactive and evolutionary (not in Darwinian sense–different analogy) beings—we also observe ourselves as we do this—-and find the errors in our ways.
For me, economics as a field of study is a maze of counterintuitive ideas, which need to be thought through–(like opportunity costs—which are continuous phenomena), eg). Yet, as we have noticed thru many of Scott’s examples—-we sometimes seem completely clueless—-and thing what is a mystery —is just fixable thru a little applied math.
I loved Russ Robert’s book–“The Price of Everything”
Evan Sherman
Sep 16 2021 at 3:56pm
Regarding theme #2: I think Occam’s Razor points me toward intellectual rigor and the complexity of the subject matter. That is: I think it’s easier for most people (especially laymen) to understand how central banks affect interest rates than it is to understand the mechanics of the money supply and other aspects of monetary policy.
Scott Sumner
Sep 18 2021 at 12:51pm
It’s easy for people to think they understand how monetary policy affects interest rates. But what they believe to be true is actually false.
Evan Sherman
Sep 19 2021 at 12:04pm
Right – I think we are saying the same thing. Or, to phrase my point more precisely than I did the first time: The layman can (partially) understand only a fraction of the tools that central banks use to shape interest rates and only some limited aspects of how interest rates shape economic conditions. Therefore, the layman’s understanding of central banks and interests rates becomes distorted by disproportionate fixation on those few things that they (partially) understand.
Or, in other words, the Dunning-Kruger effect is a thing. And it’s especially important for high school teachers, who are obliged to teach kids all kinds of things about which they lack deep expertise.
Andrew_FL
Sep 16 2021 at 8:31pm
Ah but why deregulate banking when monetary central planning works better, Mr. Monetarist?
ssumner
Sep 17 2021 at 8:11am
Why not both? Deregulate banking and have the Fed handle money.
Andrew_FL
Sep 17 2021 at 1:00pm
Because you cannot have both. That has become quite clear to me.
Scott Sumner
Sep 18 2021 at 12:50pm
Of course you can do both, at least in a technical sense. If you say it’s politically impossible, then so is your proposal.
Colin Haller
Sep 17 2021 at 8:31am
“Who’s ‘we’ Kemosabe?”
John Brennan
Sep 18 2021 at 12:12pm
This is excellent throughout. Will use it in my public economics parts of courses. We teach this to our adults as well.
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