CBO Stimulus Estimates
By Arnold Kling
CBO estimates that the Senate legislation would raise output by between 1.4 percent and 4.1 percent by the fourth quarter of 2009; by between 1.2 percent and 3.6 percent by the fourth quarter of 2010; and by between 0.4 percent and 1.2 percent by the fourth quarter of 2011. CBO estimates that the legislation would raise employment by 0.9 million to 2.5 million at the end of 2009; 1.3 million to 3.9 million at the end of 2010; and 0.6 million to 1.9 million at the end of 2011.
Of course, these estimates are pretty much wild guesses.
But even if they are good estimates, if I could push the button that says “stop the stimulus,” I would.
Keeping the U.S. government’s credit rating: priceless
If investors suddenly panic about our ability to repay our debt, that would truly be Armageddon. I don’t think we should be tiptoeing close to that line. I’d much rather risk a deeper recession than head down the banana republic route.