By Bryan Caplan
Republicans will regain control of at least one branch of the federal
government at some point between now and January 20, 2017 (two
inaugurations from now).
According to intrade, I can already start gloating: 95% probability for Republicans to win the House. Republicans even have a 12% chance to control the Senate – and the modal outcome – 47% – is for a 50/50 split. And even if I lose, I have nine more chances to win. I like those odds.
To be fair to Arnold, he’s already admitted that he expects to lose our bet. But he still thinks that he’s basically correct:
2010 will be the last stand of the WORST [white, older, rural, small-town]. That is, thanks to the
tea-party movement, the turnout rate will be disproportionately high in
the Republican base. On average, though, demographic trends still favor
My view, in contrast, is that demographic trends move at a glacial pace – more than enough time for both parties to re-invent themselves in time to stay in the running.