Republicans will regain control of at least one branch of the federal
government at some point between now and January 20, 2017 (two
inaugurations from now).
According to intrade, I can already start gloating: 95% probability for Republicans to win the House. Republicans even have a 12% chance to control the Senate – and the modal outcome – 47% – is for a 50/50 split. And even if I lose, I have nine more chances to win. I like those odds.
To be fair to Arnold, he’s already admitted that he expects to lose our bet. But he still thinks that he’s basically correct:
2010 will be the last stand of the WORST [white, older, rural, small-town]. That is, thanks to the
tea-party movement, the turnout rate will be disproportionately high in
the Republican base. On average, though, demographic trends still favor
My view, in contrast, is that demographic trends move at a glacial pace – more than enough time for both parties to re-invent themselves in time to stay in the running.