Robin Hanson and I disagree about alien visitation.  While he doubts that aliens are visiting Earth right now, I’m virtually sure that they aren’t.  As a result, we’ve made a bet.  The terms:

1. Robin pre-pays me $10.

2. If I become convinced that aliens have visited the Earth during our lifetimes, I pay Robin $10,000*1.05^(year-2021) in nominal dollars.

3. If either of us dies before (2), my heirs keep the money and the bet ends.

Or as Robin puts it:

Why would Robin make such a bet?  Because we’re best friends and he trusts me.

What would it take to convince me?  Ideally, I want to see alien critters with my own eyes, but I will settle for seeing technology so advanced I can’t imagine humans made it.   I would also settle for very high-quality, ample duration video of alien critters or tech, confirmed by multiple high-status media outlets.

In short, I want The Day the Earth Stood Still, but I’ll settle for anything in that general ballpark.