By Bryan Caplan
Robin Hanson and I disagree about alien visitation. While he doubts that aliens are visiting Earth right now, I’m virtually sure that they aren’t. As a result, we’ve made a bet. The terms:
1. Robin pre-pays me $10.
2. If I become convinced that aliens have visited the Earth during our lifetimes, I pay Robin $10,000*1.05^(year-2021) in nominal dollars.
3. If either of us dies before (2), my heirs keep the money and the bet ends.
Or as Robin puts it:
I proposed this bet in reaction to this tweet of his: https://t.co/8VPEXM7j5b
— Robin Hanson (@robinhanson) May 31, 2021
Why would Robin make such a bet? Because we’re best friends and he trusts me.
What would it take to convince me? Ideally, I want to see alien critters with my own eyes, but I will settle for seeing technology so advanced I can’t imagine humans made it. I would also settle for very high-quality, ample duration video of alien critters or tech, confirmed by multiple high-status media outlets.
In short, I want The Day the Earth Stood Still, but I’ll settle for anything in that general ballpark.