In a generally skeptical post on the topic of using foreign aid to stimulate economic growth, Tyler Cowen asks,

If you know of any good studies on what predicts future (not current) growth, in the Granger-causal sense, please let me know.

In my predecessor blog, I pointed to a paper by Richard Roll and John Talbott, who used an event study methodology to show that a democratic change increased economic growth.

For Discussion. Do economists have a reliable recipe for increasing growth in underdeveloped economies?