The Latest Oil Shock
According to James Hamilton,
The sustained run-up in oil prices has coincided with a large increase, not decrease, in world oil production. World oil production had previously fallen off in response to the lower demand brought about by the recession of 2001, a time when oil prices were soft as well. Oil prices then rebounded as the global economy recovered, with growth of both particularly impressive in 2004. It is clear that demand, not supply, has been the overall factor driving world oil prices over the past several years.
…The non-OECD countries combined account for 63% of the increase in global petroleum demand over the last two years.
…there is no missing the fact that east Asia is the place to watch for what’s going to happen to oil prices over the next decade.