The response to my global warming question has been mostly either bitter denunciation or support, but few answers. However, Anand Gnanadesikan understands what I am looking for. For example, he recommends this paper.

This study highlights the role of water vapor feedback in amplifying the global cooling after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo…the results described here provide key evidence of the reliability of water vapor feedback predicted by current climate models in response to a global perturbation in the radiative energy balance. Given the importance of water vapor feedback in determining climate sensitivity, such confirmation is essential to the use of these models for global warming projections.

He also points to this paper.

we explore changes in tropical Pacific circulation since the mid-nineteenth century using observations and a suite of global climate model experiments. Observed Indo-Pacific sea level pressure reveals aweakening of the Walker circulation. The size of this trend is consistent with theoretical predictions, is accurately reproduced by climate model simulations and, within the climate models, is largely due to anthropogenic forcing.