The Heterogeneous Labor Market
By Arnold Kling
71 percent of U.S. workers are in jobs for which there has been a decrease in demand from employers, an increase in supply of eligible workers, or both.
I gather that this was as of 2005. My guess is that it has gotten worse. It is possible that when future economic historians look at the period from 1990 through 2020, they will find that the U.S. simply could not reconstitute its labor force quickly enough to meet the huge technological shifts. As a result, we had increases in disguised unemployment (during the Internet bubble kids working for nonprofit Dotcoms, during the housing bubble too many people in housing construction and real estate) followed by recessions when the disguised unemployment became unsustainable. My guess is that in the next decade, the disguised unemployment will be absorbed mostly by state and local governments. Or else it won’t be absorbed at all, and unemployment will just stay high.
Progressives will insist that education is the cure-all for this. My guess is that no education policy will make a noticeable difference.