My Complete Bet Inventory
University of Chicago student Brian McDonald has graciously inventoried all my outstanding bets, including a couple I’d forgotten about. His complete list:
Bryan Caplan’s bets in order of closing date:
1. “I’ve bet my $200 to Walter’s $1 that Ron Paul will not be the next U.S. president.” (here) Date (bet made and/or publicized): 07/11/07. Status: closed, Caplan won.
2. “If France, Germany, and Italy remain on the Euro as of December 31, 2010, Rabkin owes me $20. Otherwise, I owe him $20.” (here) Date: 01/22/07. Status: open.
3. “If the Director of the OMB’s 2013 report says that a shortfall
exists [in the repayment of TARP], I win. Otherwise, I lose. The
stakes: I will make up to five $100 bets at even odds.” (here) Date: 10/07/08. Status: open.
4. “If the official initially reported U.S. monthly unemployment
rate falls below 8.0% for any month between now and June, 2015, I win
$100. Otherwise, Mish wins $100.” (here) Date: 03/21/10. Status: open.
5. “At any point between now and January 2016, if there is a year/year
increase in seasonally adjusted CPI that is at least 10%, then you
[Bryan Caplan] pay me at that time $100. If we get to January 2016,
and there has not been any 12-month stretch in which the above
happened, then I [Bob Murphy] pay you $100 at that time.” (here) Date: 12/14/09. Status: open.
6. “I predict that Republicans will regain
control of at least one branch of the federal government at some point
between now and January 20, 2017 (two inaugurations from now). So
Arnold, how about a $100 bet at even odds? [bet accepted]” (here) Date: 05/19/09. Status: open.
7. “I will bet $100, even odds, that the U.S. price of gas
(including taxes) in the first week of January, 2018 will be $3.00 or
less in 2008 dollars.” (here) Date: 01/01/08. Status: open.
8. “If the total number of deaths in France from riots and terrorism
is less than 500 between May 28, 2008 and May 28, 2018, Franck owes me
$50. If the total number is 500 or more, I owe him $50.” (here) Date: 05/28/08. Status: open.
9. “The stake is $US100 and the agreed criterion is that, for Bryan
to win, the average Eurostat harmonised unemployment rate for the EU-15
over the period 2009-2018 inclusive should exceed that for the US by at
least 1.5 percentage points.” (here) Date: 05/28/09. Status: open.
10. “If any current EU member with a population over 10 million
people in 2007 [Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain, Poland, Romania,
Netherlands, Greece, Portugal, Belgium, the Czech Republic, and
Hungary] officially withdraws from the EU before January 1, 2020, I
willy pay you $100. Otherwise, you owe me $100.” (here) Date: 04/26/08. Status: open.
Any he’s missed? And which have intervening events made me most likely to lose? I’m most worried about #3, because so many legislative changes have happened that it’s unclear what the OMB’s reporting responsibilities in 2013 will be. I always knew I was putting myself at the mercy of the government’s self-monitoring, but I decided the case against was so strong that even moderate chicanery wouldn’t stop me from winning.