In a thoughtful and provocative post, Tyler tells us:

Tolerance of gay individuals and alternative lifestyles is at a
historic high.  I would not endorse a crude “regression toward the
mean” hypothesis, but we should at least try it on for size.  That
tolerance is as likely to fall back as to progress.

I say he’s wrong.  I’m willing to bet Tyler $100 at even odds that any plausible measure of tolerance of gays and/or alternative lifestyles in the Western world will be higher 1 year, 5 years, or 10 years in the future.  For later time horizons, I’ll give 2:1.  Give me a plausible measure and a time horizon, and the bet’s on.

Clarification: I’ll bet at even odds on rising tolerance during the next ten years, and 2:1 odds on rising tolerance for any later period.  If Tyler wants to bet on tolerance 50 or 100 years hence, I’m happy to let my heirs settle with his. 🙂