Bryan is right to record bets. In 2003, at the Mont Pelerin Society meetings in Chattanooga, I made a bet about the Middle East for outcomes in 2008. I bet $1,000, her acknowledgement of it was in my computer in-box, and then my office burned down in Feb. 2007 along with my computer. Therefore I had no written record. In 2008, I reminded her of it and she said, basically, “No way I would have made that bet.” So here’s my one outstanding bet that I have not written down, other than in e-mail with the other bettor.

Thomas Cheplick bet me $100 in May 2010 that, “In five years the U-6 unemployment rate [he means the number of unemployed people] will be above 50 million.”

That’s one I plan to win. If I lose, I will be doubly upset–at losing $100 and at the sick economy that would give rise to 50 million people unemployed by U-6 standards.