The Markets React, and so do I
By Arnold Kling
When it comes to estimating the probability of a default by the U.S. government, credit rating agencies have no special claim to expertise. The risk of sovereign debt cannot be determined through analysis of financial metrics. Instead, it necessarily involves the assessment of political conditions.
This sort of piece is at best not my comparative advantage and at worst a mistake to write. I think I do better when I am ignoring current headlines.