The 2012 Vote That Really Matters
A tempting speculation: The Supreme Court’s vote on Obamacare will have larger effects on policy than the American public’s vote on the presidency. My thinking: If Obama wins, there will be divided government, and if Romney wins, he’ll be too moderate to push for any major change or reversal of policy changes since 2008. Either way, the presidential election won’t matter much. If the Supreme Court invalidates Obamacare, in contrast, a massive government program will go down in flames.
My main doubt about this speculation: If the Court merely overturns the individual mandate, the ultimate policy effects are hard to foresee. New legislation? Repeal? Socialized medicine by stealth?