As I mentioned last week, I’m reviewing Steven Pinker’s new book, Enlightenment Now, and loving it.
Here’s Pinker on one reason crime has fallen:
When cars are harder to steal, houses are harder to burgle, goods are harder to pilfer and fence, pedestrians carry more credit cards than cash, and dark alleys are lit and video-monitored, would-be criminals don’t seek another outlet for their larcenous urges. The temptation passes and a crime is not committed. Cheap consumer goods are another development that has turned weak-willed delinquents into law-abiding citizens despite themselves. Who nowadays would take the risk of breaking into an apartment just to steal a clock radio?
And on the decline of fires in buildings:
As a result [of things such as sprinklers and fire-retardant materials that he mentions in the previous sentence], fire departments are putting themselves out of business. About 96 percent of their calls are for cardiac arrests and other medical emergencies, and most of the remainder are for small fires.
I wish here that he had pointed out that precisely because of those facts, it’s probably pretty inefficient to send large wide fire trucks rather than smaller, quicker, more maneuverable vehicles carrying fewer people.
For more on this see “Smoke and Errors” by the late Fred S. McChesney.
READER COMMENTS
EconRob
Apr 29 2018 at 9:52pm
“Smoke and Errors” is correct, or at least “Smoke and Oversights” as there there is a bit missing wrt volunteer firefighters in the linked. Including, but not limited to, that one driver behind their demise being the decline in (labor-intense if nothing else) agriculture. Many of your historically rural areas were adequately serviced by volunteers because a large majority of the firefighters were farmers who were essentially self-employed and allowed themselves to “take off” a few hours when an alarm sounded. This is still the case in many rural areas today. However a large percentage of today’s volunteer firehouses include, get this, paid firefighters. This is due to the shift work common in paid departments which allows for multiple days each week away from their paying firefighting job. Many paid firefighters are known to have part-time employment which is often more flexible to allow these individuals to provide their services volunteering time as needed. Moreover, and this is purely speculation, I wouldn’t be surprised if this was similar in manufacturing areas due to shift work (e.g. multiple days off work). In any case, (ceteris paribus) I’m not certain today’s economy would allow for volunteers as it once did and comparing 2001 with the 1800s seems disingenuous.
McChesney’s article seems to rely heavily on anecdote as it is common for fire departments to send smaller “squads” to traffic accidents, and even vehicle fires, etc… moreover, an astute reader should notice various inconsistencies in the writing including that many paid firefighters have the same training as EMS workers.
I also wonder how, “(ir)rationally” or not, the public values these services – I notice McChesney’s article was written the year of Kahneman’s Nobel so maybe he wasn’t very well-versed in the field at that time. Also, the precautionary principle may play a large role in how the public would/does view the profession.
I am a fan of Pinker’s work and the points of his that you note are valid, so I apologize if I have distracted from your “Enlightenment Now” review to critique McChesney’s article.
Bedarz Iliachi
May 1 2018 at 2:30am
Well this may explain the fall in crimes against property but is irrelevant for crimes against persons.
I wonder about the criminal psychology behind the crimes against persons and the trend thereof. Does Pinker discuss it?
Shane L
May 1 2018 at 1:08pm
I have often thought that if burglars entered my home they would have little of value to steal! I think Pinker’s insight here is valuable.
Incidentally, might online dating apps/sites reduce inter-male violence? If the pursuit of mates shifts from bars and clubs Рat night, surrounded by rival males, involving heavy alcohol intoxication Рto sunlit dates in caf̩s, one might imagine a general decline in drunken brawls.
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