![Don't Buy Greenland, Sell Alaska](https://www.econlib.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Screen-Shot-2025-01-07-at-12.22.30-PM.png)
Every so often, there is renewed interest in buying Greenland. I suspect that this is not likely to occur, as Greenland is currently not for sale. In any case, I have a better idea; sell Alaska to Canada, where it clearly belongs.
In grammar school, we were taught that “Seward’s folly” actually turned out to be a great deal for the US, as Alaska ended up being worth far more than the $7.2 million we paid to Russia back in 1867. I’m not so sure.
According to the Rockefeller Institute of Government, the most profitable state on a per capita basis is Massachusetts, followed by New Jersey. That’s because affluent highly educated urban states pay far more in taxes than they receive federal spending. In contrast, many poor and remote rural states are a drain on the Treasury. Alaska is the 4th worse offender:
Unfortunately, this data is not very accurate, as it mixes up true drains on the Treasury with states that just happen to have a lot of federal offices (such as Maryland and Virginia.) Nonetheless, I am fairly confident that even a more accurate accounting would show Alaska to be a net drain on the Treasury. Another source that seems more accurate has Alaska as the third worst offender. It certainly pays less federal taxes than average on a per capita basis. It really was Seward’s folly.
Greenland looks impressive on the map. Even if you account for the major distortion of the Mercator projection, it’s a big place. But national greatness does not come from having a large land mass. If it did, Ukraine would have quickly lost its war with Russia.
The US does derive some benefit from Alaskan oil production, but I feel confident that the Canadians would exploit those resources more aggressively, reducing global oil prices and benefiting American motorists. The taxes paid by Alaskan oil producers are not enough to cover the burden of carrying that remote and thinly populated state. Just imagine the federal subsidy involved in delivering a first class letter to Nome, Alaska!
Obviously, I understand that the US is not about to sell Alaska, and there are probably good reasons not to. But think about this from the perspective of Denmark. If this decision were made purely on a cash flow basis, they might wish to sell. But when various intangible considerations are taken into account, that prospect becomes much less attractive.
The other purpose of this post is to remind people that things aren’t always as they seem. For average people, it’s easy to visualize national wealth in terms of natural resources. But in practice, the richest areas of the world are often rather poor in national resources–consider Singapore, Switzerland and Silicon Valley, and many resource rich places are relatively undeveloped (Siberia, Africa, Venezuela, etc.) In the modern world, success is not about accumulating more frozen wasteland in the north; if it were then Canada would be a great power. Rather success comes from using your existing land more effectively.
It’s also worth recalling that the US is broke. People in bankruptcy typically don’t look to make major purchases.
PS. Baffin Island is the same size as Japan and England combined, and shares Greenland’s balmy climate. With Baffin Island you’d get Mt. Thor—one of the world’s coolest mountains, with the largest vertical drop. Why not ask Canada if they are interested in selling? Perhaps because average American voters have heard of Greenland, and recall seeing its impressive size on school maps in grammar school, whereas average Americans would be baffled if asked about Baffin Island.
READER COMMENTS
Mark Brophy
Jan 9 2025 at 5:52pm
We should dispose of Hawaii and Puerto Rico, too. We need to scale back drastically. We should exit the wars in Gaza and Ukraine and remove all military assets from Europe. We should charge Japan and South Korea for defense services or leave. We can’t afford to support the world.
Craig
Jan 9 2025 at 6:22pm
I don’t know about you but I’m going to Sarasota to get some beachfront property on the Gulf of America.
Puerto Rico is at the point where if they voted for independence I think for sure the US should let them go but they might prefer statehood and whike I think DC as a state is illegitimate and I’d hate to see two D senators, PR IS a legitimate political question if they were to decide to petition for statehood. Of course US CAN say no…..
Boris
Jan 9 2025 at 8:00pm
The problem with PR is they keep doing referenda where “keep things as they are now” is not an option, because they know that if they put that one in it will get a plurality (though not majority) of the votes… But this does make it hard to take the referenda seriously.
Scott Sumner
Jan 9 2025 at 6:42pm
Helping Ukraine will save us money in the long run.
Jose Pablo
Jan 9 2025 at 10:17pm
We need to scale back drastically.
Really? … If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Maybe you have heard that we need to be made great again. Don’t trust everything you hear out there.
Craig
Jan 9 2025 at 6:19pm
I think NJ might get worst deal for some reason I think I remember seeing NJ gets $.63 for every dollar paid. Maybe it has changed? Indeed, I wouldn’t think NY, MA, CT wouldn’t be far off. I will say this though a MAJOR reason is many pay their taxes their and then retire and collect Medicare/Social Security elsewhere.
I’m going to work hard my entire life, retire and move north. Said.Nobody.Ever.
Scott Sumner
Jan 9 2025 at 6:49pm
I recall once seeing the proportion of income taxes paid by New York residents back in 1929. It was stunning, nearly 40%. Second highest was Pennsylvania, at 9%. Texas paid 1.3% of federal taxes.
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/29soirepar.pdf
steve
Jan 10 2025 at 11:59am
19 degrees this morning. Certainly makes me think about warmer living. At least the snow has been light. I lived in Florida for 3 years and wouldn’t want to go back there but there are other warm spots.
Steve
Matthias
Jan 9 2025 at 7:54pm
What I learn from this is that successful places and countries start with an S. So instead of buying and selling any land, ’tis far more practical to rename the country to ‘States of America (United)’.
Jose Pablo
Jan 9 2025 at 10:02pm
I don’t know about that change … you also have Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan and Senegal.
Looks like a double edged sword. Reminds me of the anecdote of Bernard Shaw and the chorus girl
Jose Pablo
Jan 9 2025 at 10:34pm
It’s also worth recalling that the US is broke.
Is it? really? How can a broke entity raise around half a trillion dollars of fresh debt in the month of December alone?
Are you hiding insider information from the US government debt market?
Are you actively shorting the US government long term debt or just “talking”?
How come that Singapore is a rich country but the US is broke? That seems like a pretty inconsistent clasification.
Craig
Jan 9 2025 at 11:12pm
“Are you actively shorting the US government long term debt or just “talking”?”
I might ask if you’re long the long bond then? Perhaps you are of course, but the old adage applies which is that markets can be wrong longer than you can be solvent (think attributable to Keynes actually)
“Is it? really?”
Yes and morally bankrupt to boot.
Jose Pablo
Jan 10 2025 at 10:18am
I have never and will never invest in government debt. My opportunity cost is way higher that the government debt interest rate. And I don’t find lending without any kind of collateral atractive at all.
But some people do. Lots of them. Sure they know what are they doing.
What I don’t understand is why financing government expenses with my high opportunity cost money (by taxing me) is better than financing the government with the lowest opportunity cost money available out there (aka government debt). I don’t get it.
Scott Sumner
Jan 9 2025 at 11:58pm
OK, we’re on an unsustainable fiscal path. So why spend more money on Greenland?
Jose Pablo
Jan 10 2025 at 10:14am
unsustainable fiscal path
But again Scott, how do you reach that conclusion?
The government debt investors don’t seem to agree with you. And they do have the right incentives (and, as you know all too well, incentives are key).
So it seems that either you or the debt investors have a wrong “mental model” to analyze government debt.
And if the US is in an unsustainable fiscal path, so it is Japan, Italy, Singapore, UK, Portugal, Spain …
So many fools investing all over the world!
Scott Sumner
Jan 10 2025 at 1:45pm
Maybe they expect us to shift to a different path.
Jose Pablo
Jan 10 2025 at 3:13pm
Maybe, poor naive souls!
Sure they bet trillions of dollar on what has never happened happening
Scott Sumner
Jan 12 2025 at 12:39pm
I’m confused. I thought you claimed the path was sustainable?
Jose Pablo
Jan 10 2025 at 11:32am
Paying every single Greenlander one million dollars (as the Economist suggest) doesn’t move the needle of the American debt in any meaningful way. And that is a 4 million dollars windfall for a family of four!!
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/01/08/an-american-purchase-of-greenland-could-be-the-deal-of-the-century
Although it certainly opens the door for a biding war for Greenland. If I we were a Greenlander I would ask for offers from China and Russia (after all you can always take the money after the selling and move to Denmark, which sure receives millionaires with open arms).
Which makes me think, what would be the American reaction if Russia (or China) buys Greenland? and, Why D J Trump expect a different reaction from Russia (or China) if America buys Greenland?
Jose Pablo
Jan 10 2025 at 12:43pm
we’re on an unsustainable fiscal path
(Sorry, because this is for another post, but as Oscar Wilde said, I can resist anything but temptations)
Suprisingly enough (at least for some “mental models” of government debt) financing ALL government expenditures by selling debt to american taxpayers exactly propotionally to the NPV of all its future tax liabilities would be equally (un)sustainable (the future “net tax liabilities”, taxes required for a zero defficit less interest payments, wouldn’t change for any taxpayer).
It is difficult to see how allowing the free trading of that debt domestically can worsened the situation. Or why allowing the selling of that debt to foreign investors can be a negative development.
MarkW
Jan 10 2025 at 6:43am
To start digging out of its huge financial hole, maybe what the federal government should start selling are 1) some of its highly valuable federal land holdings (especially in western states), and 2) green cards/citizenships (cut the people smuggling cartels out of the business).
Komori
Jan 10 2025 at 11:52am
Very facile analysis. Those federal inflow/outflow numbers are always fishy, and the lack of context in the summaries just lends itself to narrative-crafting. Much of the federal outflow in those numbers are not going to be reduced in the slightest by eliminating the state. If we sold Alaska, it’s not like we’d be reducing the military spending, we’d just have to move the military bases to the contiguous states (similar for Hawaii, naturally).
From the actual report you’re referencing, instead of the dashboard:
The other big outlays are usually retirement funding (SS, military pensions and federal pensions) and health spending (Medicare), although the report does not bother to break things down enough to tell what the actual outlays are in detail. Also, these are things that aren’t going to be reduced in any meaningful sense, since people already qualified for them are more likely to move to where they’ll still get them.
The main reason to want Greenland is strategic military use and natural resources. We already have at least some amount of the first as we do already have a military base there, but it’s not unreasonable to want greater control. And there are solid arguments against doing so, but this one sure isn’t one of them.
Jose Pablo
Jan 10 2025 at 1:11pm
but it’s not unreasonable to want greater control.
Neither it is for the Russians or the Chinesse. What would be the American reaction to Putin or Xi Jinping talking about anexing Greenland and not explicitly renouncing to the use of force to get there?
One of the (many) nationalistic distortions of reality is the failure to understand that others are, for the most part, very similar to ourselves.
America controlling Greenland is a bad idea of the same scale as Russia or China controling Greenland. That reality shouldn’t be difficutl to grasp.
Scott Sumner
Jan 10 2025 at 1:49pm
“Very facile analysis.”
Oh really? I see you ignored my claim that they pay below average taxes, a fact that is not influenced by military bases.
As for defense spending not being affected, are you claiming that small countries spend the same amount on defense as large countries? If every country should spend the same amount on defense, then why demand 2% of GDP for Nato members, why not demand all Nato members spend the same amount in absolute terms?
I’m not the one with “facile” analysis.
Ilverin
Jan 10 2025 at 4:57pm
I’m not sure Canada would use Alaska more aggressively. They aren’t fracking in Yukon, and this article suggests they are less aggressive about mining in Yukon: https://www.yukon-news.com/columns/yukonomist-why-alaska-has-4-times-more-people-than-the-yukon-nwt-nunavut-and-greenland-combined-7373337
Scott Sumner
Jan 12 2025 at 12:40pm
The Keystone pipeline debate suggests that Canada is more pro-energy than the US.