What are some places where people tend to voluntarily adhere to cultural norms?
1. Japan
2. Nordic countries
3. Utah, Vermont
What are some places where Covid death rates were puzzlingly low:
1. Japan
2. Nordic countries
3. Utah, Vermont
By “puzzlingly low”, I mean low relatively to the government policy response and age distribution. (Yes, Utah’s rate was low even adjusted for its young average age). China’s death rate was even lower, but is not a puzzle given their draconian zero Covid policy. Australian and New Zealand also had zero Covid policies (before the vaccine), enforced by limits on travel. I’m interested in places where there’s no obvious regulatory explanation.
I recently took a train from Dresden to Prague. In Germany, a very high percentage of people on the subways and trams wore masks. In Prague, almost no one wears a mask. Interestingly, the cumulative death rate from Covid in Germany is less than half as high as in Czechia (which has a younger population than Germany.) That’s obviously not all due to masks, but does largely reflect differences in willingness to voluntarily adhere to various cultural norms on things like masks, social distancing vaccination, etc. Another comparison is Austria (where people wear masks on the subway) and Hungary (where they do not.) Hungary’s Covid fatality rate is more than twice as high as Austria’s
BTW, I am not arguing that wearing a mask makes much sense today—I rarely wear them—just that it once did make sense.
PS. Sweden’s death rate was low by global standards, but high by Nordic standards. That fits with the fact that Sweden’s government did not encourage as much social distancing as its neighbors.
PPS. There’s yet another scientific study suggesting that masks are highly effective, although these studies are not very precise.
PPPS. On a recent train trip my wife wore a mask, while I did not. I was the one that got sick a day later. (Just a cold, not Covid.)
READER COMMENTS
Paul Hoppe Photography
Oct 2 2022 at 6:41am
Are we still discussing cultural norms as a driver for COVID deaths? Come on…this is an old hat already.
I live in Germany…people wear masks on trains because it is mandated or else you gotta pay a fine. Anywhere else…supermarkets, malls, cinemas…a huge majority wears no mask at all.
I am not wearing a mask on trains even though it is mandated. No one cares. No other passenger says something or looks at you weird.
Scott Sumner
Oct 2 2022 at 11:33am
Your two comments contradict each other.
MarkW
Oct 2 2022 at 7:42am
It seems like we should distinguish between ‘willingness to adhere to social norms’ and ‘willingness to adhere to government rules’. As well, it seems to me that a population’s willingness to submit to either norms or government mandates is quite a mixed bag (even if has been advantageous during the pandemic). Meekness and compliance are obviously not always good things.
Scott Sumner
Oct 2 2022 at 11:31am
“Meekness and compliance are obviously not always good things.”
But this post is not about what’s “always a good thing”, it’s about what’s good during a pandemic.
Andrew_FL
Oct 2 2022 at 9:40am
China’s death rate was even lower, but is not a puzzle given their draconian zero Covid policy.
Their numbers are also complete fiction, which helps
Scott Sumner
Oct 3 2022 at 1:30am
I don’t agree. They largely avoided the Covid pandemic.
Mark Z
Oct 3 2022 at 3:26am
Earlier this year the Economist estimated that China understated its death toll by a factor of about several hundred (that their fatalities were not a few thousand but likely over a million). Perhaps there’s something wrong with their methodology, I don’t know, but it’s a credible source strongly disputing the notion that they largely avoided the pandemic (the above link is to Forbes discussing the Economist’s findings since the Economist piece itself is behind a paywall).
Scott Sumner
Oct 3 2022 at 3:46pm
I strongly disagree, and I think most China experts would agree with me. The 1.7 million figures is wildly implausible, as China hasn’t even had that many cases, much less deaths. Just a few cases of Covid cause China to shutdown entire cities of 20 million. My wife visited China in October 2020. She said no one knew anyone getting Covid, no one was worried about getting Covid. Life went on as usual. She visited Chinese hospitals. I really don’t know how you could cover something like that up. You talk about the Chinese government, but many ordinary Chinese people speak with Americans by telephone every single day. Don’t you think they’d mention “Mom got Covid” on a phone call ? Where are all the Chinese cases? And if they were lying, why did they report thousands of deaths in Wuhan in 2020, and then start lying?
I suspect the actual death toll is just a few times larger than the official toll, i.e., ultra low.
BTW, I totally oppose Xi’s zero Covid policy.
Phil H
Oct 7 2022 at 9:26pm
Yeah, as Scott says. There haven’t been massive outbreaks. I live in Xiamen, on the southeast coast, and no-one I know has had Covid. The current regimen in many cities is that everyone goes and does a swab test at roadside testing stations every two days or so. If they find a positive, they lock down the apartment complex where that person lives. There hasn’t been a positive for a month in Xiamen AFAIK. We had a few dozen cases in September.
The big Shanghai outbreak earlier this year seems to have been in the hundreds of thousands of cases.
Chinese official statistics are a bit dodgy, but you can see with the naked eye what the pandemic looks like, and it’s been a fairly successful zero-Covid policy in its own terms.
Matthias
Oct 3 2022 at 12:29am
That’s an interesting observation. And from what I can tell, cultural cohesion is weaker in East Germany than in West Germany.
Scott Sumner
Oct 3 2022 at 1:32am
I’m also surprised by the way that pedestrians in Germany and Austria wait patiently for the walk sign, even when there are no cars on the street. Impressive!
Dylan
Oct 3 2022 at 7:22am
That was an adjustment I had moving from Seattle, where you always waited, even at 2am in suburbia, to NYC, where you go if you think you’ve got a gap in the traffic, or even when you don’t. I remember one girl stepping out in front of a platoon of speeding firetrucks, sirens wailing as they raced down 2nd Ave. Never even quickened her pace as they came upon her horns blaring.
At first it was hard for me to adjust to the new norms in NYC…but it is even harder when I visit Seattle these days, “Why are you waiting! There’s no one around!!”
Scott Sumner
Oct 3 2022 at 3:47pm
Yes, and Washington (state) has a relatively low Covid fatality rate.
Jon Murphy
Oct 3 2022 at 12:34pm
To your point, I think cultural norms not only explain mask wearing but wearing masks properly. In other words, simply ordering people to wear masks is probably not going to have the same effects as voluntary wearing because of malicious compliance. Malicious compliance refers to people who follow the exact letter, but not the spirit, of the legislation. For example, let’s say there is a mask mandate in place. Some folks may only wear loose-fitting masks, or frequently remove the mask to speak, etc. Anything that complies with the literal interpretation, but not the spirit, of the legislation.
Conversely, folks who wear masks because they believe it to be the right thing may be mroe cautious: invest in higher grade masks, more frequent cleaning/disposal, etc.
Consequently, we could have a situation where two groups have the same level of compliance but different disease rates.
Long story short: I think malicious compliance plays into your story and can explain variations across areas regarding masking and covid transmission.
Scott Sumner
Oct 3 2022 at 3:48pm
Good point.
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